If you are holding XPL, you shouldn't just focus on the impressive TVL of 25 billion; the key is to watch the timeline behind it.

Recently, there haven't been any major moves—on the day after tomorrow (January 25), 88 million tokens will be released as usual, but this has become routine for the market and hardly causes any shock.

The real test lies on July 28. On that day, the one-year lock-up period expires, and team shares, investor shares, and tokens from the US public sale will all be unlocked. By then, the monthly supply will jump from the current 80 million to over 300 million. How big is this increase? You can do the math yourself.

The next chapter depends on how the project team responds. Their trump cards are the staking plan and the token burn mechanism launched in Q2. The key question boils down to: will large holders cash out and exit in the second half of the year, or will the staking pools be able to shoulder the buy-in? The answer will be revealed by the end of July.

As one of the few stablecoin public chain projects, XPL's future performance depends on whether it can stabilize market expectations during this unlocking window.