A few days ago, we discussed the economic design of XPL, and many people's main concern remains the same—will the unlocking wave cause a dump? Instead of speculating, let's look at the data.

The current situation is as follows: XPL has a total supply of 10 billion tokens, with approximately 1.8-2.1 billion in circulation (the proportion is roughly within this range). The public sale portion of 1 billion has basically completed unlocking. The 4 billion tokens allocated to the ecosystem and growth fund are released linearly, with 8% released immediately and the remaining gradually unlocked monthly. Currently, the pressure is still manageable.

What truly needs to be watched are the 5 billion tokens held by the team and investors. This is a tough nut—each accounts for 25%, with a cliff lock of 1 year followed by 2 years of linear release. Based on the mainnet launch time (around September 2025), the cliff lock period will extend until roughly September 2026. But there's a detail: the real pressure starts to release from July 2026, and combined with the impact of some public sale tokens, this is a key node the market needs to watch.

From another perspective, these 5 billion tokens are equivalent to 2.5-3 times the current circulating supply. Dumping all at once would be quite risky. Historically, many projects have experienced volatility during such peaks. XPL has also fallen from its high of $1.69 to the current level, influenced by these factors.

However, it's important to acknowledge that linear release over a longer period can disperse pressure. The market might be a bit overcautious today, and the short-term price is already near the bottom. The key still depends on the true intentions of major investors—they would likely prefer to sell gradually, which would mitigate market impact.