On January 21, 2026, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline. The price dropped from a high of $88,000, a decline of nearly 5%. The short-term moving average was broken through by the long-term moving average, and the market was filled with a sense of anxiety. However, honestly, this is far from being "the end."

The background of this decline is actually quite clear. On one side, the US stock market was weakening simultaneously, and as a risk asset, Bitcoin naturally followed suit; on the other side, there are uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment—doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence and economic outlook are fermenting, leading large funds to reposition for risk aversion. Interestingly, while risk assets collectively declined, gold broke through the $4800 mark. This signal is quite intriguing—the market's risk aversion sentiment is heating up.

Bitcoin is a special asset; it possesses attributes of both risk assets and safe-haven assets. Understanding this helps clarify its trend. In the short term, it will definitely dance along with risk assets; but over a longer period, its identity as "digital gold" will gradually emerge, especially during phases of rising risk aversion. Currently, with US stocks weakening and gold rising, Bitcoin is usually first dragged down by risk assets, then enters the phase of gold's upward movement. The current correction is precisely the normal process before this rhythm switch.

From a fundamental perspective, short-term fluctuations don't change much. Institutional investors are still actively accumulating—MicroStrategy, for example, has recently increased its holdings. These details reflect that major players remain confident in the long-term trend.