As we enter January, Bitcoin has fallen into an interesting stalemate — upward momentum has faded, but the bottom is quietly solidifying. It seems that the selling pressure is nearly exhausted, leaving an opportunity for the price to surge to the current trading range's upper boundary. The question is, can this opportunity be fully grasped? Not quite. Because the price is stuck at a sensitive level — **around $98,000**. There are a large number of previous buy-in positions at this level, and they are now at the breakeven point. Once the price approaches, it’s easy for a sell-off to occur.

The on-chain structure does seem somewhat weak. The price is hovering around a critical cost level, and long-term holders are not showing strong signals. Short-term investors face pressure from above, and any rebound is quickly sold into. The supply side issues still persist.

On the spot market, there is a slight glimmer of hope. The selling pressure from major platforms has eased considerably, but buying interest remains selective and has not yet reached a full-scale attack. Large institutional funds are entering sporadically and driven by specific events, making it difficult to coordinate a unified buying rhythm, which offers limited help to overall demand.

The derivatives market appears somewhat subdued. Futures trading volume has shrunk, leverage is used very conservatively, and the entire market remains in a low-heat state. Short-term options are under some pressure, with short-term implied volatility reacting to risk events, but medium- and long-term implied volatility remains stable. After a brief spike in hedging demand, it has returned to normal.

Market makers' gamma positions are skewed bearish, which means the mechanical support for price stability has weakened, and the market's sensitivity to liquidity shocks has actually increased.