February has arrived, and many people are still debating whether it's a bull or bear market. Actually, there's a simple and straightforward method—look at the performance during the first 7 days of the month, and you'll have a pretty good idea.

First, let's talk about continuous gains. If the market rises for 7 days straight at the beginning of the month, it's usually a sign of a trap. When the market behaves this way, it's often at the end of a bear market, and although the gains are fierce, the risk of a black swan event is very high. Continuous upward movement sounds comfortable, but there are underlying currents.

Conversely, if there's a sharp decline of more than 7 days at the start of the month, it's much more complicated. You need to consider Ethereum's specific price at that time to judge— the probability of a bull market needs to be greater than that of a bear market to be considered stable. But there's a trap here: if the month coincides with statutory holidays like National Day, Mid-Autumn Festival, or Spring Festival, big players especially like to make big moves during this window. Last year's National Day was a classic case, a direct black swan. When Ethereum is above 3000, it's especially dangerous, as large waterfalls can come suddenly.

So, what is the situation in February? There are too many possibilities. The specific trend will depend on how the market actually unfolds, and then I will provide in-depth analysis. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin, SOL, and others, because they often resonate with the overall market.