#2026年BTC价格展望 Is the Federal Reserve about to unleash a easing storm? Let’s look at what history says

A hot topic has recently exploded in the financial circle—the top policymakers in the U.S. have explicitly expressed hope that the Federal Reserve will adopt an easing approach similar to the Greenspan era. This is not idle chatter; it sets the tone for future monetary policy and sends a clear signal to the risk asset markets.

What is the logic behind Greenspan’s approach? Simply put: prioritize growth, and delay concerns about inflation. During his tenure, the Fed aggressively cut interest rates, liquidity flooded into the markets like a tide, asset prices soared, and even the tech bubble was inflated to a huge extent. In the short term, it was a carnival, but in the long run, the pitfalls were deep—2000 and 2008 crashes have already provided the answers. Today’s policy stance clearly embraces this philosophy—"strong economic growth does not necessarily lead to inflation." Once this expectation becomes mainstream, we are likely to see a Fed that deliberately relaxes vigilance, maintains low interest rates, and keeps liquidity abundant.

The current market is at a critical juncture. Leverage is not obviously overheated, but funds are dormant and observing. Bitcoin repeatedly oscillates at key levels, lacking a truly strong macro driving force. This situation is like a key that could activate that sleeping "expectation engine." Once the market begins pricing in the logic of "the Fed easing in 2025-2026," the imagination for liquidity will directly break through technical resistance levels.

My judgment is very clear:

**In the near term (next 6-12 months)**
This expectation will gradually ferment, becoming the core narrative that supports the bottom and even drives risk assets higher. Crypto markets tend to be the first to react. Any signals indicating continued dovish policy will act as catalysts. We are likely to see an early rally based on easing expectations—smart money has already sniffed this out.

**Mid-term and beyond (when expectations are truly realized)**
After enjoying the gains, there will be a bill to pay. The policy legacy left by Greenspan includes two major market crashes. If history has a rhythm, after this round of easing bubble inflates to its peak, the cleanup will be even more intense. That will be the real test of your risk management, timing skills, and psychological resilience.

**How to respond?**
Seize this wave of expectations, but don’t forget to buckle up. In the early stages of macro narrative shifts, you should act proactively like a hunter—adjust positions and lock in profits using the liquidity expectation window. But your mind must stay clear: this is not a healthy bull market; it’s a "policy-driven bull" fueled by policy. $ETH, Bitcoin, and other risk assets do have opportunities, but only if you understand your exit plan.

When expectations truly turn into reality, the cost of the carnival will become painfully clear.