#谁将成为下一届美联储掌舵人？ Crypto Market Rhythm Under Political Cycles: Reading the Second Half of the Market from Macro Signals

A recent key piece of information is worth noting. The White House is adjusting its agenda focus—Trump plans to speak intensively every week, emphasizing "economic recovery" and "energy independence," paving the way for upcoming national political battles.

Many are still tangled in the daily noise on his social media, but the real trading signals have already surfaced in on-chain data and policy logic.

**The Narrative Turning Point Has Arrived**

Previously, market focus was swinging on geopolitical levels, but now it has clearly shifted to "domestic economic performance" and "energy costs." This shift sounds like a political narrative change, but its impact on crypto assets is a chain reaction—political pressure on the Federal Reserve will multiply. Any aggressive anti-inflation policy will directly tie into the "economic growth narrative," transforming from a simple monetary policy issue into a political tug-of-war.

**On-Chain Phenomena Are Speaking**

Recent on-chain performance is worth analyzing. The new supply of stablecoins is slowing down, and Bitcoin flow on major exchanges has shown sustained small outflows at key support levels—this isn’t panic selling but smart money waiting for a clearer narrative. They are waiting for a sufficiently significant anchor point. Now, that anchor is clear—it’s not some monthly economic data, but an uncertain political cycle that is likely to increase policy volatility.

**Where Will the Market Go**

The judgment is straightforward: next is a phase of "high volatility but unclear direction" range-bound oscillation. Every policy wave will ripple through bond markets and stock markets, ultimately flowing into risk assets. As high-beta assets, the crypto market and mainstream coins like $ETH will not be immune—in fact, they will amplify this volatility.

**How to Operate Specifically**

The core strategy is: reduce leverage and learn to dance with volatility. Avoid betting on a single-direction rise or fall; shift to swing trading—using emotional price swings triggered by political noise to profit. Also, pay close attention to tokens and ecosystems related to energy industry transformation and distributed computing infrastructure, as these stories are likely to resonate with the "energy card," creating additional narrative momentum.

Once the macro situation is clear, trading rules become straightforward.