ETH is trapped between 874 million and 646 million: 2900 and 3100 become key price levels

Ethereum current price is $3019.64, at a delicate position. According to the latest news, Coinglass data shows two key liquidation strength zones: if ETH drops below $2900, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $874 million; conversely, if it breaks above $3100, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $646 million. This indicates that there is significant liquidation pressure whether moving up or down.

What does liquidation strength really mean?

First, it’s important to understand a key concept: the liquidation strength chart does not show the exact number of contracts pending liquidation or the value of contracts being liquidated, but rather measures the importance of each liquidation cluster relative to neighboring clusters. Simply put, it reflects how strongly the price will react when reaching a certain level due to liquidity waves. Higher liquidation bars mean that when the price hits that level, it will trigger more intense chain reactions of liquidations.

Current bidirectional pressure

ETH’s current price of $3019.64 is exactly between these two key levels, about 3.4% below $2900 and about 2.6% above $3100. This encirclement indicates a clear divergence among market participants regarding ETH’s direction.

Market background increases volatility risk

Recent market dynamics further intensify this uncertainty:

• Institutional funds continue to flow in: December ETH spot ETF saw significant inflows, Fidelity’s Ethereum fund attracted $59.25 million, Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust attracted $39.21 million
• But there are also signs of reduction: Ethereum treasury company FG Nexus sold 2,500 ETH at $8.04 million, with ETH reserves from last year’s high positions resulting in a loss of about $11.52 million
• Whale actions are inconsistent: some long-term bullish behavior involves depositing 24,500 ETH into beacon chain deposit contracts, while short-term panic selling involves cashing out

These mixed signals indicate that market participants’ expectations are not unified. On one hand, institutional investors continue to allocate, while on the other hand, early high-position entrants are taking losses and exiting.

What happens when price hits liquidation points?

If ETH price breaks below $2900, the $874 million long liquidation will trigger a chain reaction. These forced liquidations of long positions will push the price lower, potentially causing broader stop-losses and panic selling. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $3100, the $646 million short liquidation will exert upward pressure.

It’s worth noting that the $874 million long liquidation strength exceeds the $646 million short liquidation strength, implying that downside risk might be slightly greater than upside risk. However, this does not mean the price will necessarily fall; it only indicates that if the lower key level is reached, reactions could be more intense.

Summary

ETH is currently in a highly balanced but risky position. The $2900 and $3100 levels are focal points for market participants and critical thresholds for short-term trends. Both longs and shorts have accumulated significant positions at these levels, and any touch could trigger chain liquidation effects.

From a market structure perspective, the coexistence of institutional inflows and treasury reductions, along with inconsistent whale actions, reflects differing views on ETH’s medium-term trajectory. For traders, the key is to closely monitor the defense at these two levels; once broken, subsequent liquidity waves could be quite fierce.