#加密市场观察 In the liquidity dilemma, can the rebound continue?

On-chain + macro: dual signals reveal the market essence
This rebound is not driven by endogenous forces within the crypto market but relies on macro sentiment transmission, combined with a decline in on-chain activity, further confirming the "weak rebound" characteristic.
Macro linkage: risk sentiment dominates short-term trends The core driver of this rebound is the global risk appetite recovery: Trump’s Davos statement easing US-EU trade tensions, NATO framework agreement implementation, boosting US tech stocks and a slight 0.2% rise in the dollar, highlighting the correlation of the crypto market as a risk asset, with BTC and ETH following the rebound. However, this correlation is a "double-edged sword"—if the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations tighten or Trump’s trade statements fluctuate, the crypto market may face downward pressure simultaneously.
On-chain signals: retail investors exit, market activity remains subdued On-chain data reflects a continued decline in market participation: BTC’s on-chain trading volume over the past 7 days decreased by 2.8% week-over-week, new addresses decreased by 4.5%; ETH’s on-chain trading volume decreased by 3.2%, with new addresses down by 5.1%. The decline in retail participation leads to further liquidity contraction, and while BTC’s hash rate remains stable at 450 EH/s and ETH’s ecosystem activity is moderate, these only indicate that the network fundamentals are stable and do not provide upward momentum for prices.

Risk warnings: three major risk areas should not be ignored
News risk: Federal Reserve policy expectations and Trump’s subsequent trade statements remain key variables. Negative news could instantly end the rebound.
Liquidity risk: insufficient spot volume makes prices vulnerable to large orders, potentially amplifying volatility, and increasing the risk of chasing highs.
Technical risk: the medium- and long-term downtrend channel has not been broken; this rebound may be a short-term correction. Beware of a failed breakout followed by a second decline, with BTC targeting $83,000 and ETH targeting $2,750.

Overall, the current crypto market is in a state of "weak rebound + high uncertainty." The $90,000 and $3,000 levels are not only price thresholds but also battlegrounds for bullish and bearish confidence. Until liquidity issues and medium-term pressures are resolved, do not blindly believe in "reversal" claims. Approaching each fluctuation with caution is the key to survival in the current market.