As of 11:00 today, Ethereum is quoted at $2973 (approximately 20,800 RMB), down 1.22% in the past hour. The 24-hour range fluctuates between $2866 and $3027. The trading volume remains high at 253.1 billion yuan, and market sentiment still shows signs of turbulence.

From a technical perspective, on the hourly chart, EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are arranged in a bearish configuration, with the price consistently trading below the moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish trend has been established. However, the RSI indicator hovers around 33, approaching the oversold zone, suggesting the market may have accumulated some rebound momentum. The candlestick bodies are continuously narrowing, and the trading volume is slightly reduced compared to the previous hour. Both bulls and bears are in cautious stalemate, making a large one-sided move unlikely in the short term. Instead, the market is more likely to consolidate with oscillations.

Regarding the MACD indicator, the DIF line below the zero axis is rising, showing initial signs of a golden cross, but the DEA remains rooted in the negative zone, indicating that the rebound strength is clearly suppressed. This appears more like a weak correction rather than a genuine trend reversal.

Looking at key levels, the $2920 to $2950 zone forms an immediate support line, supported by previous high-volume trading areas and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. If this area is broken, the next line of defense is around the $2900 mark. Short-term resistance is at $3000, which is both a psychological barrier and the upper boundary of the 24-hour oscillation center. To break through effectively, increased trading volume is needed; otherwise, resistance may cause a pullback.

The upcoming one-hour trend is likely to be oscillating with a bearish bias, with about a 60% probability of a weak correction. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between $2920 and $3000. The oversold RSI may trigger a slight rebound or test between $2980 and $3000, but due to lack of fundamental and capital support, the chances of breaking through key resistance are low. If the $2920 support is broken, the decline toward $2900 could accelerate.

For trading operations, the current market panic index is at 21, indicating extreme fear. Leverage is relatively high, and risk is evident. It is recommended to keep single-position exposure within 5% of total funds. Short-term traders can attempt light short positions in the $2990 to $3000 range, with a stop-loss above $3020. If the price retraces to the $2920 to $2930 zone, small positions can be used to seek technical rebounds, with a stop-loss below $2900. Additionally, close attention should be paid to macroeconomic sentiment shifts such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, as well as Bitcoin's oscillations around the $90,000 level, as these factors could trigger movements in Ethereum.