How does this FHE unicorn, behind 2411 bids in the Zama token auction, determine its pricing?

Zama’s token auction is underway, exceeding expectations in popularity. According to the latest news, as of January 22, over 18 million USDT have been encrypted into cUSDT for bidding, with a total of 2,411 bids, and two days remaining until the auction ends. What does this reflect?

The Project Value Behind the Auction Popularity

Zama is a cryptography company focused on Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) technology, becoming a new unicorn in the encryption industry by 2025. The token auction uses a Dutch sealed-bid auction with a single price, where all bids are encrypted with the company’s self-developed FHE technology, revealing only the clearing price without exposing individual bids to prevent front-running.

This design itself showcases Zama’s technical capability—using its own product for the auction serves both as marketing and validation.

Project Background and Funding Support

Zama has previously completed $130 million in funding, with top investors including Multicoin Capital. This funding background indicates recognition from professional investors.

From a market size perspective, the global FHE market is expected to reach approximately $3.1 billion by 2026, and Zama is currently the only provider of full-featured FHE security solutions in this field, making the sector’s prospects relatively clear.

Key Auction Parameters

How Participants Can Rationally Price

Based on relevant analysis, participants can consider two approaches:

Method 1: Market Expectation Reverse Calculation

According to market forecasts, there is about a 54% chance that Zama’s opening valuation exceeds $600 million. If your purchase cost (bid price) is based on a $600 million FDV, there is only a 54% chance of not losing money.

Typically, primary market public offerings reserve 20%-30% profit margin. Reference ideas:

• Conservative participation: 10% discount on $600 million FDV, approximately $540 million FDV, corresponding to a per-token price of about $0.0545
• Aggressive participation: 20-30% discount, approximately $420-480 million FDV, per-token price around $0.038–$0.043

Method 2: Funding Multiple Calculation

Zama has raised $130 million. Top projects usually aim for the public offering price to be equal to or slightly higher than the last institutional funding round. For tech projects, valuation is often about 5-8 times the funding amount.

Based on the $130 million funding, as long as FDV is within $300–$400 million (about 3 times the funding), it is a relatively reasonable participation range for this type of project.

Current Market Performance

Data shows ZAMA’s current price at $0.063512, market cap of $139.73 million, and fully diluted market cap of $698.63 million.

• 1-hour change: +0.98%
• 24-hour change: -3.94%
• 7-day change: -23.21%
• 30-day change: -59.93%

The token is listed on some exchanges, but the tokens of auction participants will be fully unlocked on February 2, when true liquidity will be released.

Summary

The high popularity of Zama’s auction (18 million USDT, 2,411 bids) reflects market recognition of the FHE sector and this well-funded unicorn. However, participation requires rationality—not all hype is worth chasing. The key is to choose a reasonable pricing range based on your risk appetite.

From the project perspective, Zama is a rare “genuine technology + genuine narrative” project, and the FHE sector’s prospects are worth watching. From a participation standpoint, a FDV of 300–400 million is a relatively safe reference line; more aggressive investors might try the 400–500 million range.

Future focus points include two key dates: January 24 (auction end and clearing price announcement) and February 2 (token unlock and market test).