Is Ethereum in danger? Christmas net inflow surge hints at whale selling signals

According to on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant’s monitoring, Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a precarious situation. Abnormal surges in net inflows of ETH to Binance around Christmas are sending a dangerous warning to the market.

End-of-Year Net Inflows Surge, Over 140,000 ETH Flood into Binance

CryptoQuant data shows that during Christmas, Binance recorded the largest-ever net inflow of ETH. In just a few days, over 140,000 ETH flooded into the exchange, setting a new high for this year. Such a large-scale one-time capital inflow often indicates that investors or institutions are preparing for a major sell-off.

Even after this inflow peak, the momentum of ETH inflows into Binance has not significantly eased but has instead shown a continuous positive flow. This sustained net inflow further reinforces the judgment that “whales are gradually positioning for a sell-off.”

Short-term Sell Signal is Clear, Technicals Are in Danger

A deeper analysis of the moving average structure of the net inflow indicator reveals an even more concerning situation. EMA(7) and EMA(14) are continuing to rise, while SMA(30) remains relatively stable. This special structural combination sends a clear signal to the market: The short-term selling intent is accelerating.

From the price performance perspective, investors are already preparing to tiered sell when ETH rises to resistance zones. Since each rally could face selling pressure from inflowing exchange funds, ETH’s upward potential becomes highly limited. Under this ongoing supply pressure, any rebound is unlikely to develop into a lasting rally.

Price Divergence Continues, Risk Warnings Rise

It is worth noting that there is a clear “disconnection between net inflow and price movement” phenomenon. Typically, high positive net inflows are accompanied by a significant price correction, but during the large inflow period in late December, ETH’s price did not fall sharply; instead, it showed a nearly sideways trend.

The underlying logic behind this abnormal phenomenon is: Not all ETH transferred into exchanges will be sold immediately. On the contrary, large investors seem to be adopting a more sophisticated strategy—gradually and tieredly selling their holdings near resistance levels. This gradual selling approach makes the selling pressure more covert but also more persistent.

Support Level Breakdown Risks Exist, Bearish Pattern Unchanged

Based on the current net inflow situation, the level around $3,080 may become the biggest pressure zone for ETH. If positive net inflows persist, ETH’s price could face the risk of testing the $2,500 support level downward.

Currently, ETH is trading around $3.02K, with limited room above the resistance zone. Unless a clear net outflow occurs in the short term, any upward movement might be viewed by the market as a counter-trend rebound—an ideal selling window for large investors.

Ethereum remains in a clearly weak pattern, and until a clear bottoming signal forms in the market, the downtrend is expected to continue. For investors with lower risk tolerance, Ethereum’s situation is extremely precarious, and caution should be maintained in the short term.