#贵金属黄金与白银刷新历史高位 January 22 Gold Midday Consolidation

Yesterday, Asian trading saw gold surge to 4888.33 before pulling back. Currently, it’s hovering around 4795.77, down 93 dollars from the high, a decline of 0.69%. This pattern is very typical—bulls pushing higher encounter resistance and lose momentum, now in a classic "gap down after opening high" situation.

From a technical perspective, the outlook appears somewhat weak. The previous short-term upward trendline has been broken, entering a correction phase. The KDJ indicator is below the midline of 50, with no signs of oversold conditions yet, indicating room for further downside. On the MACD, both DIFF and DEA are below zero, with the green bars shrinking but still negative, suggesting bears still hold the upper hand and the rebound strength is insufficient. The 6-day RSI is stuck at 47.46, neither hot nor cold, with bulls and bears still in a tug-of-war.

The news front is quite critical. Tonight, the US November Core PCE data will be released, with market expectations at 2.8%. If the data exceeds expectations, the market’s anticipation of the Fed maintaining high interest rates will strengthen, possibly leading to a stronger dollar and further pressure on gold. Conversely, if the data is weaker than expected, expectations for rate cuts will increase, giving gold a chance to rebound.

Trading strategy: The current phase is characterized by sideways and slightly bearish movements.

Short-selling approach: A rebound to the 4800-4820 range can be taken lightly for short positions, with a stop-loss above 4820, targeting 4760-4750.

Long position approach: Wait for a pullback to stabilize around 4730-4740 before taking a small long position, with a stop-loss below 4720, aiming for the 4780-4790-4800 range.

Risk reminder: Before the PCE data is released, the market may remain cautious and watchful. Do not be greedy, control your position sizes, and avoid chasing rallies or panicking during declines. Wait until the data is out and the direction is clear before taking action.