Bitcoin price trend reverses: $50 billion institutional funds driving force, Ark predicts soaring to $1.5 million by 2030

The current Bitcoin price has stabilized at $89,870 USD, doubling since the beginning of last year. Ark Invest believes that the core driving force behind this rally has quietly shifted — market participants’ mindset has completely transitioned from “Should I invest in Bitcoin” to “How much should I invest and through which channels to enter.” This change not only signifies a maturing investor mentality but also marks Bitcoin’s official entry into a new era dominated by institutional players.

The Era of Institutional Maturity Arrives: ETFs and DAT Absorb 12% of Circulating Supply

Since the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024, it has become the most important capital inflow into the market. In just 18 months, total net inflows have exceeded $50 billion, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) capturing most of the funds.

Even more remarkably, these ETFs and corporate Digital Asset Reserve Strategies (DAT) have collectively absorbed about 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Ark Invest analyst David Puell pointed out that this figure far exceeds market expectations and has become the main engine driving Bitcoin’s price movements, with influence potentially extending into 2026. The real implication behind this is: institutional capital is no longer a marginal participant but a main force fundamentally changing the market structure.

Long-term Holders Selling vs. Institutional Accumulation: The Market Tug-of-War in 2026

Currently, Bitcoin’s price trend presents an interesting standoff. On one hand, “ancient whales” holding over 10 years are gradually selling at high levels to realize profits; on the other hand, institutional investors are continuously accumulating through ETFs and DAT companies.

Puell observed that this tug-of-war defines the market’s main theme in 2025 and even into early 2026. Unlike past bull-bear cycles, where selling pressure often led to sharp declines, today’s selling is being absorbed by continuous institutional buying, creating a more stable supply-demand balance. This dynamic directly impacts Bitcoin’s price resilience — even short-term volatility is less likely to produce the large retracements seen in the past.

Volatility at Record Lows, Risk-Adjusted Returns Soaring: Market Resilience Changes

Bitcoin’s market performance is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Puell found that Bitcoin volatility has dropped to historic lows, while risk-adjusted returns have significantly improved. Past bull markets often saw retracements of 30%-50%, but since the bottom in 2022, the largest drawdown has been only about 36%.

What is the reason behind this? Puell believes that market participants are now more mature. Compared to the retail investors who blindly chased highs in the past, today’s investors tend to rationally allocate during price retracements. This behavioral change directly reduces irrational market volatility and shortens recovery periods. As a result, Bitcoin’s price trend now exhibits characteristics of “more stable peaks and shallower valleys.”

Valuation Targets for 2030: Three Scenarios Ranging from $300,000 to $1.5 Million USD

Ark Invest provides a comprehensive long-term price forecast model for Bitcoin, covering three different scenarios:

• Conservative Scenario: By 2030, the target price is about $300,000 USD. This is based on Bitcoin’s value storage function as “digital gold.”
• Base Scenario: Approximately $710,000 USD. Assuming accelerated institutional adoption but not reaching a critical mass.
• Optimistic Scenario: Up to $1.5 million USD. This requires full institutional capital entry and a fully idealized regulatory environment.

Puell emphasized that the true explosive potential comes from the third scenario — full institutional participation. He believes that while the “digital gold” concept is solid, Bitcoin’s extraordinary potential fundamentally stems from institutional investors recognizing its value as a strategic asset.

Regulatory Support and Policy Favorability: Building Long-term Confidence

Clarified crypto regulations brought by the Trump administration, along with strong local government support in places like Texas, form long-term structural advantages. Even if the US’s strategic Bitcoin reserve doesn’t directly create new demand, it helps shape a more stable holding structure.

Puell pointed out that these policy shifts lay the foundation for institutional entry. Policy certainty eliminates the regulatory risk premiums seen in earlier years, allowing Bitcoin’s valuation models to be built on a more solid basis.

Long-term 5-year Vision: The Transformation into a Mature Asset

Ark Invest consistently evaluates Bitcoin with a 5-year long-term perspective rather than short-term price predictions. Puell’s final conclusion is that Bitcoin is transforming into a “less volatile, widely held institutional mature asset.” This shift transcends mere price movements and signifies a fundamental change in the entire asset class’s nature.

Investors need to understand that once institutions become major holders, Bitcoin’s behavior will resemble that of traditional financial assets — more stable, more predictable, and protected by regulatory frameworks. This may not be as exciting as “rising tenfold,” but it provides genuine safety margins for long-term investors.