Polymarket 290,000 Market Data Analysis: Why Liquidity Concentrates in a "Geometric Series"

Polymarket, as the largest decentralized prediction market, aggregates a vast user base and capital. However, an in-depth analysis of 295,000 historical market data points reveals an unexpected pattern—liquidity is not evenly distributed but concentrates exponentially according to a geometric series formula. This reflects the behavioral differentiation of prediction market participants and the intrinsic logic of market structure.

Illusory Prosperity of Ultra-Short-Term Markets: 63% of Events Fall into Zero-Trade Dilemma

Among the 295,000 Polymarket markets, 22.9% (about 67,700) have cycles shorter than 1 day, and 67.7% (about 198,000) are shorter than 7 days. These ultra-short-term events seem to be the most popular, but reality tells a different story.

Out of 21,848 ongoing short-term markets, 13,800 have zero trading volume in the past 24 hours, accounting for 63.16%. This scene is reminiscent of the chaos of MEME coins in the Solana ecosystem—tens of thousands of tokens issued, most of which are abandoned. The only difference is that prediction market events have a definite lifespan, whereas MEME coins’ demise is unpredictable.

Liquidity statistics are even more striking: over half of short-term markets have liquidity below $100, effectively turning these markets into “dead markets.” In these ultra-short-term predictions, crypto price movements and sports events dominate. Although both are theoretically suitable for quick trading, data shows the average trading volume for sports predictions reaches $1.32 million, while crypto predictions only average $44,000. This indicates that if one aims to profit from short-term BTC volatility predictions, there is a lack of sufficient counterparties.

Long-Term Markets Are the Reservoir of Big Capital: Average Liquidity Differs by 45 Times

Compared to the broad dispersion of short-term markets, long-term markets are far fewer. Markets with cycles from 1 to 7 days total 141,000, but those exceeding 30 days are only 28,700. However, liquidity reverses this trend—markets with over 30 days have an average liquidity of $4.5 million, while those within 24 hours average only about $10,000.

This contrast clearly indicates that institutional and professional investors prefer long-term predictions rather than short-term speculation. In long-term markets (over 30 days), U.S. political predictions are especially favored, with an average trading volume of $28.17 million and an average liquidity of $811,000. “Other categories” (covering pop culture, social topics, etc.) also attract an average liquidity of $420,000.

For crypto predictors, long-termism has also become mainstream—such as predicting whether BTC will break $150,000 by year-end or whether tokens will fall below a certain price within months. In the context of prediction markets, crypto predictions resemble a simple options hedge rather than short-term speculation tools.

Sports Predictions’ “Two Poles”: 1.32 Million vs. 400,000 in Extreme Divergence

Sports predictions are one of Polymarket’s traffic drivers, with 8,698 active markets accounting for about 40%. Yet, within the same category, trading volumes show startling divergence.

Predictions shorter than 1 day have an average trading volume of $1.32 million, creating a high-frequency casino of “instant dopamine.” In contrast, mid-term sports predictions with cycles of 7 to 30 days average only $400,000, a third of the short-term volume. Predictions exceeding 30 days, such as “season-long bets,” rebound to $16.59 million.

This V-shaped curve reveals the binary nature of sports prediction users: either seeking real-time feedback and excitement or placing large bets spanning an entire season. Mid-term contracts, in between, are coldly received, forming a typical “bimodal” phenomenon.

Real Estate Predictions Face Cold Start Dilemma: High Certainty but No One Cares

Real estate predictions should be ideal long-term assets—high event certainty, cycles over 30 days, and significant social attention. Yet, after launch, they are lonely. Daily trading volume is only a few hundred dollars, starkly contrasting with lively social media discussions.

In comparison, the U.S. 2028 presidential election predictions lead the market in liquidity and trading volume. The core difference lies in participation barriers. Real estate predictions require participants to have specialized knowledge and complex market understanding, while election predictions are straightforward and intuitive. A more fundamental limitation is that real estate markets are inherently low-volatility, lacking frequent event-driven triggers, making it difficult to provide stimulating feedback for speculators.

The result is an awkward deadlock: professional players lack sufficient counterparties, and amateur players are deterred. This perfectly illustrates the cold start dilemma of new asset categories.

Capital Concentrates According to Geometric Series Law: 505 Super Contracts Control 47% of Trading Volume

This is the most astonishing discovery in the entire analysis. When segmenting markets by trading amount, a geometric series pattern unfolds:

Markets with trading volumes exceeding $10 million total only 505, but account for 47% of all trading volume. Conversely, markets with volumes between $1,000 and $100,000 are the most numerous, totaling 156,000, but only represent 7.54% of total volume. In other words, the fate of most prediction contracts is “go live and then zero.”

This vividly embodies the reality of the geometric series—capital concentration far exceeds the proportion of market quantity. Liquidity is not spread evenly like sunlight but is instead focused like a spotlight, gathering the vast majority of funds around a few “super narratives.”

Geopolitical Predictions Rise Strongly: 29.7% Active Rate Becomes New Favorite

Among all categories, geopolitical predictions show the strongest growth momentum. The total number of historical contracts in this category is only 2,873, yet 854 are active, with an active rate as high as 29.7%—the highest in the entire market.

This data signal clearly indicates that new geopolitical contracts are rapidly increasing and have become one of the topics most concerned by users. Recently exposed insider trading addresses are mainly related to these contracts, further confirming the market’s hot interest in geopolitical predictions.

The Ultimate Revelation of Liquidity: Natural Selection of Decentralized Order Books

Through the data mirror of these 295,000 markets, two archetypes of success emerge: one is sports predictions—“high-frequency casinos” relying on instant results to provide dopamine feedback; the other is political predictions—“macro hedges” offering tools for large capital seeking long-term risk offset.

Markets lacking narrative density, with overly long feedback cycles and missing volatility, are destined to struggle in decentralized order books. This is not a market flaw but a natural selection—liquidity concentrates geometrically toward markets that best meet participant needs.

Polymarket is gradually evolving from a “predict everything” utopia into an extremely specialized financial instrument. Participants must understand: only where liquidity is abundant can value be discovered; where liquidity is scarce, traps await. This is the greatest truth revealed by the data about prediction markets.