As the current Federal Reserve Chair's term gradually comes to an end, Wall Street and crypto traders are starting to speculate about the next chair. Basically, who the new chair is will directly determine whether the second half of 2026 will see a sustained surge or another deep dip.

Currently, the top three candidates are gaining the most attention. Let’s take a look at each one.

**Christopher Waller — 40% probability**

This guy is a traditional hawk but has an open attitude towards technology. He has repeatedly said that crypto assets are "digital gold," which is already a relatively friendly stance among Fed officials. If he takes office, the regulatory framework might become more transparent, which could be favorable for mainstream assets like Bitcoin. But the problem is, he is very hawkish on fighting inflation—don’t expect him to loosen policy easily. Rate cuts would be very cautious, and market liquidity wouldn’t flood in suddenly.

**Scott Bessent — 35% probability**

Coming from a macro hedge fund background and currently serving as an economic advisor to Trump. These types of people usually advocate for a "weak dollar strategy." If he takes office, to ease debt pressures, he’s likely to promote monetary easing policies. For cryptocurrencies? That would be a nuclear-level positive. Liquidity would flow out continuously, directly boosting high-elasticity sectors like AI Agents and RWA.

**Lael Brainard — 15% probability**

A representative of the dovish camp, especially focused on central bank digital currencies. She would support liquidity release but also impose strict regulations on decentralized protocols. Funds might increase, but the "regulatory stick" will come along with it.

**The reality is like this**

The situation in 2026 is no longer just about "raising or cutting interest rates," but about whether "credit will continue to expand." Honestly, regardless of who takes office, "debt monetization" is already an established fact. As traders, instead of obsessing over the candidate, it’s better to keep an eye on the 10-year US Treasury yield—that’s the real indicator of market direction.

What do you think? Would you prefer a chair who actively cuts rates or someone with clear regulatory rules but a firm stance?