Affected by geopolitical influences, BTC continues to face pressure – on-chain data reveals a shift in market sentiment

Last weekend, the Iran situation drew global attention. Despite multiple news reports from the Middle East, the US and Israel have yet to take concrete military action, resulting in a relatively calm cryptocurrency market over the weekend. Although Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around $90,000, it remains suppressed by ongoing daily declines. Coupled with the persistent uncertainty in international affairs affecting investor sentiment, the market currently lacks the momentum for a breakout.

This week, the US will release key economic data such as CPI, but market focus remains on the policy developments of Trump. It is expected that the overall trend will be driven primarily by news, especially the latest developments in the Middle East and Iran, as each policy statement could directly impact the market.

How the Iran Situation Affects the Cryptocurrency Market

Geopolitical risks often influence the crypto market mainly through sentiment. When international situations are uncertain, risk assets tend to be the first to be affected, with investors generally shifting to defensive positions. This directly impacts Bitcoin’s price movement. Currently, BTC is still near $90,000, but its upward and downward potential is limited, reflecting that market participants are waiting for clearer signals.

According to the latest market data, BTC is trading at $90.11K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.09%, and a daily trading volume of $1.35B. However, this level of trading activity is far below market expectations, indicating that investors remain cautious until the conflict uncertainty is resolved.

Market Confidence Deteriorates Based on Binance Derivatives Data

CryptoQuant’s latest data reveals subtle shifts in market sentiment. Binance’s Bitcoin derivatives market showed clear signs of contraction over the past week. The 7-day change rate of open interest (OI) dropped sharply from +9% on January 8 to -2% on January 11, a decline of 11 percentage points. This rapid change indicates traders are heavily closing positions, especially long positions, either by actively exiting or being forced to liquidate.

Meanwhile, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has been steadily declining since January 8, indicating increasing selling pressure in the market. The simultaneous decline in CVD and shrinking open interest further confirms that the market is experiencing a withdrawal of bullish positions and a resurgence of selling strength. This combination of signals suggests that the bullish support for BTC at high levels is beginning to weaken.

Whale Capital Movements Signal What

In terms of capital flow, Binance’s large inflows (30-day rolling total) have shown slight growth, rising from $3 billion to $3.6 billion, indicating initial redistribution signs. This growth pattern is highly similar to early October last year, when increased whale activity often signaled an upcoming short-term profit-taking phase.

Although current volatility has not reached extreme levels, the combined signals of declining open interest and whale deposits into exchanges suggest market sentiment has shifted toward caution. Large capital movements are often leading indicators of market direction changes, and investors should monitor these closely.

Key Risks Investors Should Watch

Considering the combined impact of geopolitical factors, technical weakness, and capital flow trends, Bitcoin faces multiple pressures in the short term. Especially with the Iran situation still unclear, the selling pressure on risk assets is unlikely to dissipate quickly. Investors should pay close attention to potential redistribution behaviors and price corrections, while maintaining awareness of international political developments, as these factors could continue to influence market sentiment over the coming weeks.