Bull market over? Bitcoin bear market signals are everywhere. CryptoQuant reveals the $56,000 bottom line.

Crypto data provider CryptoQuant recently released an in-depth analysis, indicating that Bitcoin has been in a bear market cycle since early November 2025. Due to a significant contraction in market demand and persistent weakness in on-chain indicators, the forecast suggests that the future bottom will be in the range of $56,000 to $60,000. Research Director Julio Moreno issued a warning in the latest report, drawing on multiple technical signals to outline the trajectory of this bear market.

As of early 2026, Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $90,060, representing a decline of over 11.95% from the all-time high of $126,080 set in October last year. The market is brewing a correction deeper than expected.

Bear Market Signals Confirmed, Multi-Dimensional Data Points Recognized

The determination of a Bitcoin bear market is not unfounded. CryptoQuant’s “Bull Market Scoring Indicator”—a composite indicator system integrating technical and on-chain data—turned fully negative in November, with no signs of rebound. This is the first such extreme signal since the 2022 crash.

Specific factors triggering this shift include: Bitcoin breaking below its annual support line, declining network activity, shrinking trading volume, and a large-scale liquidation event in October, which directly drained market buying pressure. Moreno emphasized that these signs mark the official end of the bull cycle.

Demand is the Real Culprit, Not the Halving Effect

While many institutions and analysts attribute the downturn to supply-side factors, Moreno offers a different perspective: the fundamental destruction of the bull market is due to a complete exhaustion of demand, rather than the traditional halving expectations.

There were three strong demand waves in 2025: the listing of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, liquidity related to the presidential election, and institutional accumulation trends driven by Bitcoin savings strategies. However, since early October, these demand engines have one by one shut down. Institutional investors are closing positions, and US Bitcoin ETFs have turned into net sellers in Q4, selling over 24,000 BTC— a stark contrast to the active buying seen the previous year.

This reversal is particularly deadly because institutional demand was once the core pillar supporting the upward trend. When this pillar collapses, the entire logic of the bull market also collapses.

55% Correction, Creating the Mildest Bear Market Decline

According to CryptoQuant’s forecast, if Bitcoin ultimately bottoms at $56,000, it would represent a decline of about 55% from its all-time high. This figure may seem deep at first glance, but within the historical context, it is the mildest correction in Bitcoin’s cycle—far less severe than the 70% to 80% drops seen in 2022 and 2018.

The expected bottom of this correction aligns with Bitcoin’s “realized price,” which is the average cost basis of all current holders. Currently, this level is around $56,000. Historically, this area often marks the final line of defense in a bear market.

Support Levels and Three-Tier Risk Defense

Moreno has mapped out a clear downward path for the market: in the short term, the $70,000 level will serve as the first critical support, which could be reached within the next 3 to 6 months. If the market cannot find buying support at this level, further decline will be inevitable.

A deeper bottom at $56,000 may only be reached in the second half of 2026. Market volatility is expected to gradually increase, and investors should prepare psychologically for a continuous downtrend.

Rebound Still Possible, But Conditions Are Stringent

Despite the bleak outlook, Moreno is not entirely pessimistic. He believes that if new institutional buyers emerge or global liquidity injections occur (e.g., a policy shift by the Federal Reserve), the bear market will not deepen indefinitely. However, the current market structure bears a striking resemblance to the pre-2022 crash setup, hinting at potential risks brewing.

Analysis indicates that 2025 will be Bitcoin’s first losing year since 2022, which puts significant pressure on expectations for a rebound in 2026. Unless new macro liquidity is injected in time, market momentum recovery will be difficult.

This cycle—from the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market—will become a significant case study in crypto market history—neither extremely brutal nor a mild end, but a typical bear market run.