The cryptocurrency bull market will start in Q2 2026: A look at the future from four major economic logics

Is the current crypto market really in trouble? From a more rational perspective on the overall economic situation, I believe everything is unfolding as expected. The performance of cryptocurrencies is not a market decline but a wait for a true liquidity turning point. Let’s analyze through four major economic cycles to see when the bull market will truly start.

Gold Surge and the Shake-up of US Treasury Reserve Status

Gold prices are rising strongly, far surpassing the gains of stocks and cryptocurrencies. This is no coincidence but a direct reflection of strategic adjustments by various countries. China, India, Russia, and even the United States itself are pushing up gold prices as a form of “de-dollarization.”

There are two fundamental reasons: first, the US’s long-term fiscal extravagance has led to a decline in the creditworthiness of government bonds; second, the US froze Russia’s foreign exchange and treasury reserves, which fundamentally undermined the myth of US Treasuries as a “neutral reserve asset.” From a game theory perspective, Russia, China, and India’s choices are simple—increase gold holdings, reduce US debt, which is a rational act of self-defense. Economists like Doomberg and Luke Gromen have thoroughly discussed this shift in logic.

Why US Stocks Continue to Rise but Haven’t Gone Crazy

US stocks are still climbing but have not reached irrational heights. This is because the US stock market is fundamentally driven by automated capital flows from passive investment industries—millions of working Americans monthly contribute their retirement funds to major indices regardless of price fluctuations. As investment analyst Mike Green has explained for years, this mechanism guarantees a long-term upward trend in US stocks.

Meanwhile, US stocks are increasingly becoming “the global stock market.” As the global economy digitalizes further, US tech giants like Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft have become the premier venues for global capital allocation. This trend will continue until cryptocurrencies become the dominant stage for global capital formation.

The Freezing of the Real Estate Market and the Interest Rate Dilemma

Due to high interest rates, the US real estate market has completely frozen. Currently, US residential real estate assets are valued at $37 trillion, but they are essentially immobilized. Homeowners are unwilling to refinance at higher rates or sell and buy new homes at higher rates, let alone apply for double-digit mortgage equity lines of credit. This massive $37 trillion in assets cannot flow, directly freezing consumer spending power.

Liquidity Is the True Catalyst for the Crypto Bull Market

Cryptocurrencies rebounded from their lows in 2022. The downturn was caused by the rate hike cycle and the chain of collapses of institutions like LUNA and FTX. Today, our scale has expanded by about 25% from the 2021 peak but still does not match Nvidia’s market cap, only one-tenth of gold’s total market value.

Why hasn’t the crypto bull market truly started? Because there has been no large-scale liquidity injection like in 2021. Most attribute the last bull run to stimulus checks and the “stay-at-home” movement, but I believe the real driver was the massive extraction of equity from the real estate sector. Ordinary investors (“Cardano dad”) either sold property for cash, refinanced mortgages for liquidity, or applied for home equity lines of credit, then aggressively entered the market via platforms like Coinbase.

Q2 2026: The Critical Time Window for the Bull Market to Start

Based on the four cycles above, the current performance of various asset classes aligns perfectly with economic fundamentals. For cryptocurrencies, the real bull market will begin in Q2 2026—when interest rates finally fall to sufficiently low levels, “unfreezing” the frozen real estate market.

Once the real estate market resumes liquidity, the $37 trillion in assets will become accessible again. Homeowners will be able to refinance, sell, or apply for equity credit, some of which will flow into the cryptocurrency market. We expect about six quarters of positive price momentum.

Bear Market Return and Long-Term Cycle Forecast

However, the end of this bull market is also predetermined. It is expected that in Q4 2027 or Q1 2028, after market euphoria and the panic before the next US presidential election, a new wave of sell-offs will trigger the next bear cycle. This is an inevitable pattern in market long-term cycles.

Given the above analysis, the crypto bull market is far from over, and in fact, it has not truly begun yet. I will continue to position myself for this long-awaited turning point in the second quarter of next year.

(Content based on the analysis by PANews author rektdiomedes; this is a personal opinion and not investment advice)