The era of quantum chips is coming, and Bitcoin's cryptographic security faces new challenges

Google’s recently released quantum chip Willow has delivered a heavy blow to the field of cryptography. The emergence of this new type of quantum chip not only marks a significant step forward in practical quantum computing but also rekindles industry concerns about the security of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. How powerful is the computing capability of quantum chips? Do they truly threaten Bitcoin’s survival?

Google Willow Quantum Chip: A Milestone in Performance Breakthrough

According to the latest research published by Google in the journal Nature, the Willow quantum chip successfully ran the “Quantum Echo” algorithm, demonstrating the first empirical proof of “verifiable quantum advantage”—meaning the results can be verified by traditional computers.

The performance data is astonishing. Willow’s computing speed is 13,000 times faster than the current world’s most powerful supercomputer, Frontier. In other words, a task that would take approximately 3.2 years on Frontier can be completed in about 2 hours with Willow. Such a leap in performance is enough to provoke deep reflection on the future security of cryptography.

Bitcoin’s Security Fortress: ECDSA Encryption Mechanism

To understand why quantum chips pose a threat to Bitcoin, we first need to understand the core of Bitcoin’s security—the public-private key system.

Each Bitcoin wallet has a set of private keys and corresponding public keys. The private key is used to sign transactions and prove their legitimacy, while the public key is derived from the private key through the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). The cleverness of this design lies in the fact that, even if you possess the public key, it is extremely difficult to reverse-engineer the private key.

This difficulty stems from the “Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem”—solving this problem with current computational power would require an unimaginably long time. It is this mathematical challenge that protects the assets in hundreds of millions of Bitcoin wallets.

Quantum Threat: Theoretical Risks vs. Practical Threats

However, the advent of quantum computers disrupts this balance. In theory, sufficiently powerful quantum computers could quickly solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, thereby breaking the protection offered by ECDSA.

Cryptography expert Christopher Peikert from the University of Michigan has provided a cautious assessment. He points out that quantum computing indeed poses a “reasonable” long-term survival threat to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, with a probability exceeding 5%. But he also emphasizes that this is not an immediate danger—the quantum technology still has a long way to go before it truly threatens modern cryptography.

The Way Forward: From Now to Actual Threat

The industry is not sitting idly by. “Post-quantum signature schemes” have become a hot research topic within the cryptography community, and many blockchain projects are exploring transition plans. However, any solution must face practical trade-offs.

Peikert notes that new post-quantum keys and signatures will be larger, which means increased transaction and block sizes, putting pressure on network efficiency and storage capacity. Therefore, balancing security and practicality will be a key challenge in the future.

The current conclusion is: the Willow quantum chip represents a direction of technological progress, but the actual threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security will still take time to materialize. This provides the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem with a sufficient window to prepare before the arrival of the quantum era.