Volatility is the price of profit; panic is the tax on cognition.

Another round of turbulence is coming, and the community is buzzing. Friends are staying up all night flooding the screens: Should we run? Is this really a bear market? As I look at these questions, a memory from 2021 flashes through my mind—also driven by this kind of panic, I impulsively sold my Bitcoin, only to watch it double in value. I still remember that feeling vividly.

After going through three cycles of bull and bear markets, I’ve developed a set of insights: fluctuations and retracements are not rare; in fact, they are the hallmark of a healthy bull market. True trend reversals? They often happen quietly, without warning. By the time you realize, it’s too late to regret. Today, I’ll share some key signals I use to assess the health of a bull market, which might help you stay calm.

**Clues from liquidity shifts**

Some people are panicking over minute-by-minute candlestick charts, but I look further ahead. The tide of global liquidity—that’s the real puppet master behind the scenes. Compared to the noisy news, central bank monetary policies are the ultimate force that determines market fate.

Currently, the rate-cut cycle has already begun, and the "water tap" of liquidity hasn’t been turned off yet. As long as global M2 continues to expand, the story of rising crypto assets—those most sensitive to liquidity—will go on.

To recognize true bear market signals? You need to wait until central banks start seriously tightening liquidity or the real economy collapses enough to drain funds. Neither of these indicators has turned red yet; instead, liquidity is quietly building up in the background.

**Panic index bottoming out—an inverse signal**

Whenever the market panics, I habitually check various sentiment indicators. Right now, Bitcoin’s "Fear and Greed Index" has dropped to 10/100, a new low for this cycle. In other words, the market is in a state of extreme fear.

Even more interesting, short-term holders are still in profit. What does this mean? It indicates that the true capitulation hasn’t happened yet.

History shows that extreme panic often presents the best buying opportunities. Every time the market dips to a level where most people want to cut their losses, it’s actually the closest point to the bottom. Human fear is the most reliable contrarian indicator— the more people are afraid, the nearer we are to a rebound.