[NFT News Observation] Will the market really rebound in 2026? A coexistence of liquidity dilemma and investment opportunities

Entering 2026, the NFT market has shown surprising signals. After years of continuous decline, this week the market trading volume and prices have experienced a significant rebound. According to industry data, the overall market capitalization has increased by over $220 million in the past week, with hundreds of NFT projects recording varying degrees of price increases. For those players who have persisted through the winter, this long-awaited green market trend seems to have reversed the market consensus that “NFT is dead.”

But does this rebound truly represent a market recovery? After in-depth data analysis, we find that the answer is far from as optimistic as it appears on the surface.

Market Rebound Illusion: Liquidity Crisis Behind Price Rises

The seemingly warming NFT market is actually a game of existing capital within a very small range, rather than a genuine recovery driven by new capital influx. This can be seen from trading data.

Among over 1,700 NFT projects, only 6 have trading volumes reaching the million-dollar level. Fourteen projects have trading volumes in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, and only 72 in the tens of thousands. Even among top projects with higher trading volumes, the number of actively traded NFTs only accounts for a single-digit percentage of the total supply. This means that a large number of NFTs face the dilemma of zero transaction volume.

Looking back at data from the past year, the decline of the NFT market is even more evident. The total annual trading volume dropped to $5.5 billion, a decrease of about 37% compared to 2024. More startling is that the total market value of NFTs shrank from approximately $9 billion to $2.4 billion, a decline of over 70%. These figures indicate that once highly sought-after NFT assets have now become “aging assets.” True new capital has long ceased to enter.

Notable shifts also include changes in mainstream ecosystems. The once vibrant multi-chain landscape has disintegrated, with the market reverting to Ethereum dominance. The iconic NFT Paris event has also been quietly discontinued due to funding exhaustion. These signs all point to an irreversible decline in the NFT market—at least under the current “small picture” model.

Major Project Shift: Where Is the Capital Flowing from Virtual Images?

During this prolonged downturn, all participants—from infrastructure to blue-chip projects—are playing a “survival story.”

Leading trading platform OpenSea has abandoned its focus on JPEG images, shifting towards business transformation through airdrops and token trading. The once mainstream NFT blockchain Flow is exploring new growth points in DeFi. Zora has completely abandoned traditional NFT models, turning to a “content as token” track. Even iconic NFT events have been forced to halt due to funding issues.

Particularly noteworthy is that some top NFT projects, despite gaining recognition in the mainstream world, still cannot sustain their prices. For example, Pudgy Penguins successfully built IP awareness and sold physical toys hotly, but its NFT floor price remains doomed to decline. Similar phenomena of “good reputation but poor sales” fully demonstrate the limitations of attention economy in the NFT market.

The decision of Web2 giants like Reddit stopping NFT services and Nike selling RTFKT further signals the difficulties faced by mainstream adoption in this field.

However, decline does not mean the disappearance of collecting and speculative demand; capital is merely flowing into new battlegrounds. Compared to on-chain virtual images, off-chain collectibles like toys and physical cards are still hotly traded. Pokémon TCG trading volume exceeds $1 billion, with revenue over $100 million—numbers far surpassing the overall NFT market size.

It is also worth noting that crypto elites are starting to vote with their actions. Crypto artist Beeple shifted his creative focus to physical robotics, with celebrity robot dogs like Elon Musk’s being snapped up. Wintermute co-founder Yoann Turpin invested $5 million in purchasing dinosaur fossils. Animoca Brands founder Yat Siu spent $9 million acquiring a Stradivarius violin piece. These shifts clearly indicate that the smartest capital is returning to physical assets and top collectibles.

New Investment Logic: Which Types of NFTs Still Have Value Support

Although the overall market is declining, NFTs are not experiencing a complete capital drought. Funds are flowing into assets with high risk-reward ratios or clear value support.

Speculation and arbitrage opportunities still exist. Some participants believe the market has bottomed out and are engaging in short-term trading based on price mismatches, which carry relatively high risk-reward ratios.

NFTs with “golden shovel” attributes currently have the best liquidity and highest participation. These NFTs are no longer just collectibles but financial certificates for future airdrops. Most of these mean access to whitelists or airdrop eligibility. However, this model has obvious flaws—once the airdrop is completed or the snapshot ends, if the project does not develop new functionalities, the floor price often plummets or even drops to zero. Therefore, these NFTs are more suitable as short-term trading tools rather than long-term assets.

NFTs endorsed by celebrities or top projects are gaining market attention. For example, the Hypurr NFT series airdropped to early users on top DEX HyperLiquid has been steadily rising. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently changed his profile picture to a Milady NFT, and its floor price has also risen significantly. The value of these NFTs is driven by attention economy; celebrity endorsements can greatly enhance their visibility and liquidity.

Top IP-based NFTs have moved beyond pure hype, with investment logic leaning toward cultural recognition and collection value. They tend to be more resistant to price declines and have long-term value storage potential. CryptoPunks being included in the permanent collection of the Museum of Modern Art in New York is a prime example.

Acquisition-driven narratives also deserve attention. When projects are acquired by stronger investors, the market often revalues them, expecting their IP monetization ability and brand moat to be significantly enhanced. Pudgy Penguins and Moonbirds both experienced notable price increases after acquisition.

Integration with real-world assets has become a new source of value support. Tokenizing physical assets on-chain provides clear tangible value, reduces risks, and enhances market reach. Platforms like Pokémon card tokenization platform Collector Crypt and Courtyard allow users to trade card ownership on-chain with physical items stored by the platform, gaining broad market acceptance.

Practical functions are becoming a new direction for NFT revival. From NFT ticketing, DAO voting rights certificates, to AI on-chain identity verification (such as Ethereum ERC-8004-based NFT AI agent identities), NFTs are gradually shifting from collectibles to tools.

These changes indicate that, compared to chasing meaningless virtual images, NFTs with practical utility or clear upward potential are becoming the focus of capital attention. In this evolution of the NFT news, the market is redefining what truly valuable NFTs are through price language.