Ark Investment Forecast: Bitcoin Market Cap to Reach $16 Trillion by 2030, Institutional Holdings Hit New High

HashBard · 2026-01-21T20:38:13+00:00

Ark Invest predicts in the "Important Trends in 2026" report that by 2030, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will exceed $28 trillion, with Bitcoin's market cap expected to reach $16 trillion, accounting for 60%-70%. This forecast is based on Bitcoin's fixed supply cap, with a single coin price reaching $761,900. Increased institutional participation and the proliferation of ETFs have led Bitcoin to be regarded as "digital gold." Although the safe-haven asset outlook for Bitcoin has been somewhat downgraded, the overall outlook remains optimistic.

HashBard

2026-01-21 20:38:13

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【CoinDesk】Ark Invest makes a bold prediction in its latest “Important Trends in 2026” report: by 2030, the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market is expected to surpass $28 trillion, with Bitcoin leading the pack, estimated to reach $16 trillion, accounting for 60%-70% of the overall market.

Where does this number come from? It’s simple, based on the fixed supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins. Calculating from this market cap, the price of a single Bitcoin should be around $761,900—an increase of approximately 765% from the current price of $88,000. It sounds crazy, but Ark Invest’s logic is not unfounded.

They believe Bitcoin is becoming the leader among emerging institutional assets. Why? First, institutional participation is increasing; second, Bitcoin ETFs are becoming more popular, and companies are starting to include Bitcoin in their asset allocations; third, market volatility is gradually decreasing. The properties of “digital gold” will become more and more prominent.

Data speaks: by 2025, the holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies have risen from 8.7% of the total circulating supply at the beginning of the year to 12%. Among them, ETF holdings increased from 1.12 million to 1.29 million coins, and the growth rate of listed companies was even more rapid—from 598,000 directly jumped to 1.09 million, a 73% increase.

It is worth noting that although the overall outlook of this report has not changed significantly, a few key assumptions have been adjusted. Given that gold increased by 64.5% in 2025, they have raised the market size that digital gold can reach by 37%. On the other hand, because the penetration of stablecoins in emerging markets is accelerating, they have actually lowered the expected role of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset—indicating that market structure is quietly changing.

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Deconstructionist

· 30m ago

Is Ark's prediction serious, 760,000 per coin? Hold on, let me calculate how long I need to save... Institutional entry definitely changes the game, but this increase is just too outrageous, haha. To be honest, I buy into BTC as digital gold, but these numbers really have me stumped. The widespread adoption of ETFs is fine, but the real question is whether they can truly reduce volatility—that's the key. Wait a minute, are they just hyping again? But thinking about it carefully, who would have believed $80,000 five years ago...

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GweiWatcher

· 01-22 20:08

$760,000? That sounds crazy, but Ark's team isn't entirely wrong... Institutional buying this round is definitely real.

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probably_nothing_anon

· 01-21 21:07

760,000 for one piece? Haha, that's crazy. Ark's recent prediction is really bold.

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RugpullAlertOfficer

· 01-21 21:07

760,000 per piece? Ark really dares to say that, but it's true that institutions are really rushing to get on board.

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SurvivorshipBias

· 01-21 20:56

760,000 USD per piece? Are you looking for a joke or do you really believe it... Institutional holdings are indeed increasing, but this prediction is outrageous, a 765% increase over 6 years? I believe in ETF adoption, but I don't believe these numbers.

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defi_detective

· 01-21 20:56

$7.6 million? That logic sounds ridiculous, but institutions are really buying... The widespread adoption of ETFs is indeed impressive. --- I just want to know how many people will still be shouting "Sell, sell" by 2030. When Bitcoin really goes up, will they cry again? --- A 765% increase sounds crazy, but compared to going from $1 to now... maybe it's not that impossible? --- Ark Invest is just doing that, painting a rosy picture for institutions, and retail investors just hold and follow. --- I don't quite believe the point about volatility decreasing, unless it's really all institutions playing. --- $16 trillion... Wake up, just dreaming. --- By the way, institutional entry has indeed changed the game rules. This time, it might really be different. --- The term "digital gold" is getting annoying, but looking at institutional holdings data... there might actually be something to it.

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