"Bitcoin News" VanEck Study: Could Reach $2.9 Million by 2050, Pending Two Major Conditions

This latest research from global asset management giant VanEck has sparked market attention. According to a joint report by the company’s Digital Asset Research Head Matthew Sigel and senior analyst Patrick Bush, if Bitcoin can play a more significant role in the global financial system over the next 25 years, its price could surpass $2.9 million by 2050. Notably, the current Bitcoin price hovers around $89,880, leaving more than 30 times upside potential to reach this long-term target.

This report titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” is not merely a simple price forecast but a valuation model built on a “Base Case” scenario. The study estimates that, under the given assumptions, Bitcoin’s long-term annualized return could stabilize at around 15%.

Trade Settlement and Central Bank Reserves — The Twin Engines of Bitcoin Value

VanEck’s valuation framework revolves around two key assumptions. First, that Bitcoin will gradually evolve into a “global trade settlement tool,” eventually handling 5% to 10% of worldwide trade settlement volume. Second, some central banks, considering diversification of foreign exchange risk and reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency, will allocate a very small proportion of their foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin.

However, VanEck also honestly points out that there is still a huge gap between these assumptions and the current reality. Bitcoin’s role in international trade is nearly negligible, and no central banks have officially recognized Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Achieving these shifts requires clearer regulatory frameworks, improved underlying infrastructure, and political acceptance — none of which are sufficiently in place at present.

From Theory to Reality: The Gap

The report emphasizes that the path to $2.9 million will not be smooth. VanEck predicts that Bitcoin’s long-term annual volatility will remain high, between 40% and 70%, which is more characteristic of frontier markets rather than mature financial assets.

From a macro perspective, VanEck notes that Bitcoin’s price correlates more strongly with changes in global liquidity than with traditional assets like stocks or commodities. This indicates that Bitcoin is gradually becoming linked with the broad money supply, while its correlation with the US dollar’s trend is weakening. In other words, Bitcoin’s price drivers are accelerating toward globalization, reflecting an increase in its “structural importance.”

How to View Long-Term Volatility and Risks

Despite the high volatility, VanEck still forecasts that Bitcoin can maintain positive growth even under the most conservative “Bear Case” scenario. This conclusion is based on the ongoing structural strengthening of Bitcoin’s position in the global financial system.

The study further points out that historical trends show Bitcoin’s synchronization with global liquidity environments far exceeds that of traditional assets. This suggests that as more capital recognizes Bitcoin as a financial asset, its price will increasingly be driven by global macro liquidity rather than mere speculative sentiment.

The Role of Bitcoin in a Diversified Portfolio

From an asset allocation perspective, VanEck’s analysis indicates that allocating 1% to 3% of a diversified investment portfolio to Bitcoin can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns. This does not mean Bitcoin is low risk — quite the opposite, its high volatility is well known. The key is that the allocation is limited, so its high volatility does not proportionally amplify overall portfolio risk, but rather provides diversification benefits in a multi-asset environment.

From the perspective of Bitcoin news, VanEck’s research offers investors a framework for thinking: there is no need to focus solely on short-term price predictions, but rather on Bitcoin’s long-term positioning within the global financial system. The $2.9 million target is not a pipe dream, but its realization depends on coordinated progress across regulation, application, and infrastructure. In this process, volatility is inevitable, but from a long-term structural perspective, Bitcoin’s allocation value is increasingly evident.