2026-01-21 20:22:08

The recent market phenomenon is indeed surreal—gold and silver prices are rising steadily, US stocks and A-shares are also gaining strength, but Bitcoin has been falling for several days, seemingly disconnected from the overall trend.

The popular "ABC Theory" (which advocates buying everything except crypto assets) on the internet seems to validate this phenomenon, with many people simply allocating all their funds into traditional assets. However, such a consensus expectation itself carries risks.

Why is this divergence happening? On the surface, Bitcoin appears to be "weak," but in reality, it is acting as a warning light. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often detects changes in global liquidity more敏锐ly than US stocks—its stagnation可能暗示s that "the market's water is tightening."

From a macro perspective, the Fed's balance sheet reduction has not stopped, and the Bank of Japan is also raising interest rates. Global liquidity is indeed tightening. Meanwhile, increasing policy uncertainty in the US has led capital to flow into traditional safe-haven assets—gold's rise is actually driven by central banks' continued purchases, while the strength of AI stocks and military-industrial stocks reflects structural policy tilt. These are all driven by "national will" at the policy level, which is entirely different from the market funds spontaneously pushing up Bitcoin.

What does history suggest? Whenever Bitcoin falls to an extreme relative to gold (RSI below 30), it often signals the start of a new rebound. Looking back: after 2015, it surged over 100 times; in 2018, it rebounded 7 times from the bottom; in 2022, it once again led all assets. Now, Bitcoin has once again fallen into "extreme weakness" relative to gold—this familiar signal is worth pondering.

Conversely, rushing into small-cap stocks (which have already risen 45%) and obviously泡沫的 AI concept stocks might actually be the last leg of the rally. Most people's cash reserves are nearly exhausted; entering the market at this point carries极大风险.

What are the insiders doing? They are seeking allocations that can hedge risks while still capturing growth opportunities—and this is precisely the key to understanding the market liquidity cycle.

BTC-0,37%

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metaverse_hermit

· 01-21 20:45

History is repeating itself again. I'm just waiting for this rebound. --- When ABC theory becomes popular, it's usually the time to reverse your position. --- Wow, small-cap stocks have already risen 45%, do you still dare to chase? Are you tired of living? --- Bitcoin's recent drop feels like it’s absorbing supply, just waiting for a reversal. --- The central bank is buying gold, and retail investors are still chasing AI concepts? Wake up. --- RSI breaking below 30 has always been a reliable signal before. Let’s see if this time is another show. --- Cash is almost exhausted, yet people keep pouring in. I won't take part in the final act. --- Liquidity tightening is most quickly reflected in Bitcoin. Truly, it’s more reliable than any technical analysis. --- Experienced traders are already quietly positioning, while we’re still debating whether it will go up or down. --- The national will pushes gold and AI stocks, retail funds push Bitcoin. The patterns are completely different. --- It’s always the same. When the most extreme weak signals appear, that’s when we should act.

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AlwaysAnon

· 01-21 20:38

Is this the same rhetoric again, claiming that Bitcoin has become a warning light? I think the real reason is that liquidity has become tighter.

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GmGnSleeper

· 01-21 20:34

Here comes the "ABC Theory" again? Basically, it's collective chasing of the rise, waiting to buy in together.

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IronHeadMiner

· 01-21 20:29

Once again, RSI has broken below 30. Should I go all-in this time?

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SudoRm-RfWallet/

· 01-21 20:29

History tends to repeat itself, and when RSI breaks below 30, it's often the calm before the rebound. The current widespread discussion of ABC theory actually indicates that the last few buyers are running out. Bitcoin may seem weak this time, but it is actually warning of tightening global liquidity. Those who understand are quietly lurking. Small-cap stocks have surged 45%, and AI concept stocks are so crazy. To be honest, entering now is like catching the last wave. The central bank buying gold and policies promoting AI and military industries are completely different from Bitcoin. Don't be fooled by appearances. Signs of tightening liquidity have already appeared, and those still blindly chasing gains might really not have grasped the key point. Every time Bitcoin is extremely weak like this, the subsequent gains are astonishing... but now, entering definitely requires some courage.

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DeFiDoctor

· 01-21 20:26

The medical records show that this wave of market行情 is actually a clinical manifestation of liquidity tightening. The ABC theory should have been reviewed long ago. I've seen the RSI break below 30 many times. Every time, some people bet correctly, and others bet wrong— the key is whether you have cash reserves to continue adding. Small-cap stocks rising 45% still dare to rush in? Isn't the risk warning loud enough? This is a typical strategy complication. Bitcoin's recent "weakness" is just right. True hedging allocation should start from here. Don't follow the masses to chase those policy hot spots. The central bank's continuous gold purchases and capital flow into safe havens indicate that the market's "water" is indeed tightening. The historical pattern that Bitcoin reacts faster than US stocks is likely to be validated again this time.

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