Market Focus: Bitcoin vs. USD trends intertwined with global central bank actions, creating macro and micro interactions

In mid-January 2026, the international market exhibits complex interactions. On one hand, Bitcoin against the US dollar continues to fluctuate, with the current BTC price around $90.12K, reflecting market concerns over a strengthening dollar; on the other hand, central banks around the world are intensifying policy actions regarding digital currencies and crypto assets, shaping a new cross-border payment ecosystem. Market changes during this period involve multiple dimensions such as macroeconomics, policy guidance, and capital flows, warranting in-depth observation.

Macro Drivers: RMB Breaks 7 Threshold and Central Bank Digital Currency Strategies Reshape Cross-Border Payment Landscape

Since the end of 2024, RMB breaking the 7 threshold against the US dollar has become a focal point. This breakthrough not only signifies a reversal in exchange rate trends but also reflects China’s economic resilience and the release of year-end foreign exchange settlement demand. Analyses generally agree that the weakening of the US dollar index, supported by China’s economic fundamentals, has jointly driven the RMB’s strong appreciation.

Against this backdrop, the pace of central bank digital currency (CBDC) development has noticeably accelerated. The People’s Bank of China recently stated in a press conference that it will support regions along the Western Land-Sea New Corridor to participate in the multilateral CBDC bridge project and promote the use of CBDC in cross-border payments. This move is significant—it indicates that the application scenarios of digital currencies in international payment settlements are expanding and may gradually alter the existing international payment landscape.

Meanwhile, regulatory agencies in Russia are also speeding up. The Moscow Exchange and Saint Petersburg Exchange jointly announced plans to launch compliant crypto trading in 2026 and support the Russian Central Bank’s comprehensive regulatory scheme. The scheme intends to recognize Bitcoin and stablecoins as “monetary assets,” processed through licensed exchanges and brokerages. This shows that major global economies are formulating clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto assets rather than adopting blanket bans.

Market Liquidity: Shifts in Bitcoin Spot ETF Capital Flows and New Institutional Holding Strategies

From a market liquidity perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows over recent periods. This change in capital flow reflects cautious tactical adjustments by institutional investors, especially when Bitcoin against the US dollar faces volatility.

Notably, although ETF outflows persist, institutional holding strategies have not completely shifted. Recently, BlackRock deposited nearly $230 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum into Coinbase Prime, indicating that large asset managers continue to maintain crypto allocations. Additionally, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced plans to increase holdings to 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, demonstrating long-term bullishness on Bitcoin’s value.

Subtle fluctuations in Bitcoin mining difficulty also reflect market balance. Recent adjustments slightly increased difficulty, indicating that the total network hash rate remains within healthy ranges, and the mining ecosystem remains stable.

Ecosystem Evolution: DeFi Lending Hits New Highs, Accelerating Reconfiguration of Crypto Investment Landscape

In the DeFi sector, Maple Finance has performed outstandingly. Yesterday, this lending platform issued a single loan of $500 million, setting a new platform record, while its total outstanding loans also hit a record high. This indicates increasing maturity in the DeFi lending market and growing institutional demand for on-chain lending services.

Regarding crypto asset performance, 2025 showed significant divergence. Data indicates that the Real-World Asset (RWA) sector led with an average increase of 185.76%, with Keeta Network soaring over 1700%. Layer1 projects ranked second with an 80.31% increase, with Zcash and Monero rising 691.3% and 143.6%, respectively. In contrast, AI and Meme sectors performed poorly, declining over 50% and 31%, respectively, reflecting a market shift from speculative assets to utility-driven assets.

In institutional allocations, Multicoin Capital is suspected of off-market purchase of 60 million WLD tokens from the Worldcoin team, totaling approximately $29.06 million. This transaction demonstrates continued confidence from leading investment firms in the Worldcoin ecosystem. Additionally, Trend Research currently holds about 645,000 ETH, ranking as the third-largest holder after Bitmine and SharpLink, with an average acquisition price of $3,299.43.

Industry Outlook: 2026 Crypto Ecosystem Predictions, Stablecoins and AI as Decisive Forces

Looking ahead to 2026, Jay Yu, Head of Research and Investment at Pantera Capital, released 12 major predictions guiding the industry. These predictions cover multiple dimensions:

In payments, crypto lending combining on-chain and off-chain credit modeling will become a new frontier, meaning future lending experiences will be closer to traditional finance. The market is also expected to bifurcate into a “financial direction” integrating DeFi, supporting leverage and staking, and a “cultural direction” with more localized and niche interests.

In technology and infrastructure, AI will become the core layer of crypto interfaces, with Large Language Model (LLM)-driven trading AI still in experimental stages but with promising prospects. Hyperliquid is expected to maintain dominance in perpetual contract DEXs, while stablecoins will become core assets. International payment flows using stablecoins will also be a key trend, with more fintech companies like Stripe and Brex adopting stablecoins for cross-border payments, and stablecoin chains like Tempo becoming major fiat-to-crypto gateways.

In asset allocation, the rise of tokenized gold is noteworthy, as it will become a popular asset for inflation hedging and addressing dollar issues. The outlook for governance tokens faces survival tests, with models like equity-backed tokens potentially emerging, and regulatory frameworks becoming clearer.

These predictions reflect a fundamental fact: as the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin against the US dollar fluctuate and policy frameworks mature, the crypto ecosystem is transitioning from a speculative phase to an application phase. The advancement of CBDCs, reshaping of international payment frameworks, and deepening institutional investments collectively point toward a future that is more institutionalized and more integrated with traditional finance.