BTC price hits a key resistance zone, long-term holders' cash-out pace significantly slows down

On-chain data platform Glassnode’s latest monitoring shows that Bitcoin’s price has rebounded to a key price range from the end of last year. Meanwhile, an important market signal has emerged—the long-term holders holding for over five months are slowing down their profit-taking pace. According to the latest on-chain data statistics, this group of large holders currently cash out about 12,800 BTC per week, far below the peak sell-off levels when Bitcoin’s price broke above $100,000 last year.

Long-term holders’ sell-off scale has significantly decreased

The data comparison is the most intuitive. When Bitcoin’s price approached $100,000 at the end of last year, long-term holders’ weekly sell-off exceeded 100,000 BTC. Now, this number has fallen to one-tenth of that. What does this change reflect? On one hand, it indicates that long-term holders have increased their confidence in the current price, and their desire to cash out has decreased; on the other hand, it also shows that major market players remain cautious about the future trend and have not been chasing the highs on a large scale.

From a market momentum perspective, the decline in sell-off scale means that the upward pressure from large holders has been significantly alleviated. This provides Bitcoin’s price with some breathing room, making the recent rebound more sustainable.

Historical resistance zones still pose technical barriers

However, it is important to note that the current price zone for Bitcoin is not without risks. Data shows that this price range has repeatedly served as a “ceiling” for the rally over the past few months. Whenever the price attempts to break upward, it encounters resistance here.

Although the selling pressure from long-term holders is easing, the technical resistance inherent in this zone still needs time to be absorbed. Any deeper trend reversal must first overcome the constraints of this historical pressure zone. This means that merely reducing sell-offs is not enough to push Bitcoin’s price to new highs; additional capital inflows are also needed to drive the move.

Geopolitical instability brings safe-haven risks

It is worth noting that the current global geopolitical situation shows signs of escalation. Such risk factors often trigger increased risk aversion in the market. Once risk aversion dominates, funds may flow out of risk assets into safe-haven assets, which usually exerts downward pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

Overall, Bitcoin’s price, although supported by the slowdown in long-term holder sell-offs, still requires multiple conditions to align for a breakthrough of the current resistance zone. Market participants need to pay close attention to on-chain large holder movements, technical resistance levels, and macro risk factors’ changes.