ETH surges to 2950, institutions like Bitmine increase holdings by 3.4%. Is this a bottom signal?

According to the latest news, ETH broke through 2950 USDT, with the current price at 2951.21 USDT. This breakout looks promising, but in the context of the broader market, a calm analysis is necessary. Over the past 7 days, ETH has decreased by 12.84%. Is this short-term rebound a sign of reversal or just a breather amid a downtrend? What factors are worth paying attention to?

Contradiction Between Short-term Rebound and Long-term Downtrend

The true face of price movement

Based on data, ETH’s recent performance shows a clear differentiation over different timeframes:

This data explains the situation well. The 1-hour rebound is not enough to offset the 24-hour decline, and the 7-day drop is even more alarming. In other words, the breakthrough at 2950 is more like a technical rebound during a downtrend rather than a trend reversal signal.

The overall market is still adjusting

From the macro perspective, this breakout occurs amid a general correction. According to the latest data, BTC has fallen below $93,000, and the GameFi sector has experienced an 8.58% drop in 24 hours. In such a market atmosphere, ETH’s short-term rebound appears somewhat isolated.

Institutional Accumulation: A Long-term Bullish Signal

Bitmine Immersion’s 3.4% holdings

Although short-term prices are under pressure, one noteworthy phenomenon is that Bitmine Immersion, led by Tom Lee, currently controls over 4.167 million ETH, accounting for 3.4% of the circulating supply. That’s no small amount.

This level of institutional accumulation usually reflects a long-term allocation strategy rather than short-term trading. Institutions wouldn’t significantly increase their holdings based on short-term volatility, and the underlying logic warrants consideration.

Fundamentals Improving: Overlooked Bright Spots

Gas fees plummeting, trading volume hitting new highs

This is the most easily overlooked but also the most important part. Data shows that ETH’s Gas fees have plummeted to $0.01, hitting a record low. Meanwhile, daily transaction volume on Ethereum has reached 2.6 million transactions, a record level.

What does this mean? It indicates that network congestion issues have been thoroughly addressed, and user costs have significantly decreased. This is a direct result of Ethereum’s technological upgrades (Fusaka upgrade, PeerDAS launch, Layer2 applications).

From a fundamental perspective, this is an extremely positive signal. The combination of low fees and high throughput makes ETH more competitive compared to rivals like Solana.

Market Sentiment and Risks

Whales’ stop-loss behavior

It’s worth noting that recent monitoring shows several well-known traders executed stop-loss orders in this price range. Traders who “never short” have consecutively stopped out two ETH long positions, losing $38,000. This indicates that there are still trapped positions in the market, and the short-term rebound may face selling pressure.

Lessons from institutional liquidations

Another warning sign is that recent large whales suffered a loss of $4.21 million after liquidating their ASTER and ETH positions. This reminds us that even institutions can face setbacks in this volatile market.

Summary

ETH breaking through 2950 is a technical rebound, but should not be overinterpreted. In the short term, the 12.84% decline over 7 days indicates the market is still searching for a bottom; in the long term, institutional accumulation and fundamental improvements (Gas fees, trading volume) provide support. A true reversal signal would be a price breaking above previous highs and stabilizing, not just a short-term technical rebound. The most important current focus is whether ETH can hold above 2950 and break through higher resistance levels.