Strategy's counterparty adds another $106 million, what are the whales positioning themselves for at the low point?

In the context of the ongoing decline in the crypto market, Strategy’s counterparty has significantly increased its positions over the past 2 hours, adding $106 million long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, with total holdings surpassing $400 million. Interestingly, this increase occurred despite the account already being at a floating loss of $6.82 million. The signals behind this move warrant in-depth analysis.

Whale Accumulation Strategy

According to Hyperinsight monitoring data, the specific accumulation details of Strategy’s counterparty are as follows:

From this data, several key features can be observed:

Focused on Mainstream Assets

Strategy’s counterparty’s accumulation is concentrated in BTC, ETH, and SOL, indicating their judgment of the market bottom is based on the overall market rather than individual coins. In terms of allocation, ETH and BTC each account for about 42%, while SOL accounts for approximately 17%, reflecting a relatively balanced portfolio.

Risk Signals from High Leverage

BTC and SOL are using 20x leverage, while ETH uses 15x. Such aggressive leverage configurations, continuing to add positions while in a floating loss, suggest that the account either has strong confidence in a rebound or is engaging in risk hedging. According to related reports, Strategy’s counterparty previously held a $161 million short position in BTC; this reversal to long positions may indicate a strategic adjustment.

What Does the Accumulation During Losses Reveal

As of press time, the account status of Strategy’s counterparty is not ideal:

• Total position value: $402 million
• Losses over the past week: $27.6 million
• Current floating loss: $6.82 million (small DASH short position with a floating profit of $79,000)

In this context, adding $106 million more has several possible explanations:

Bottom Signal Judgment

Institutional-level trading accounts typically possess stronger data analysis and risk management systems. Continuing to add positions after a significant market decline may imply that the account considers current prices close to the bottom. Looking at BTC’s 7-day decline of 9.30%, the market has indeed experienced a substantial correction.

Passive Cost Averaging

Under high leverage, if the position is floating in loss, adding more can lower the average cost of holdings. This is both a risk management approach and an expectation of a rebound.

Participation in Market Bull-Bear Battles

According to related reports, the current market is in a heated battle between whales. Bulls are defending and hedging, while bears are gathering and expanding their gains. Strategy’s counterparty’s accumulation may be an active move by the bullish camp.

Key Market Background Information

This accumulation is not an isolated event; it needs to be understood in conjunction with the market environment:

• Macro Disruptions: Threats of tariffs from the Trump administration against the EU have heightened risk aversion, gold hit a record high, and the crypto market faces short-term pressure.
• Leverage Liquidation: Over $800 million in liquidations across the entire network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 90.5%, indicating that market risk release is nearing its end.
• Institutional Movements: Long-term holders are taking profits, but institutional whales continue to accumulate at lows, creating a clear divergence.

Possible Future Trends

Based on Strategy’s recent actions, the market may face several scenarios:

• Rebound Probability: If the accumulation successfully lowers the average cost, any subsequent small rebound could improve floating losses, attracting more follow-up capital.
• Increased Volatility: High leverage means any sharp movement in either direction could generate significant gains or losses, potentially further intensifying market volatility.
• Strategy Adjustment: Transitioning from short to long positions indicates changing market expectations, often a sign of a market turning point.

Summary

The large accumulation by Strategy’s counterparty amid losses reflects institutional traders’ judgment of the market bottom. This signal has some reference value, but caution is warranted: high leverage also entails higher risks. The current market is at a critical stage of bull-bear battles, and crypto asset volatility is expected to remain high. Key points to watch are whether BTC can hold its current support levels and how mainstream coins like ETH respond. Data shows that whale accumulation has created conditions for a short-term rebound, but this does not guarantee an inevitable bounce; the market still needs time to validate this judgment.