"Bitwise Perspective" ETF Continues to Absorb Supply, Can Bitcoin Replicate the Gold Surge Miracle?

Leading cryptocurrency asset management firm Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently proposed a thought-provoking benchmark analysis: Bitcoin may be re-enacting the upward trajectory of gold over the past few years. This perspective is based on a key phenomenon—institutional-grade ETF funds are continuously absorbing new market supply.

Lessons from Gold’s Doubling and Explosive Growth

Gold’s historical trend provides a compelling reference case. Since 2022, when global central banks initiated large-scale gold purchase cycles, gold supply has doubled. Interestingly, the price did not react immediately. The market took time to digest this new supply, and by 2025, when the long-term accumulated selling pressure was finally exhausted, gold experienced a 65% surge. What does this “lagged breakout” pattern imply?

The Strong Buying Effect of Bitcoin ETFs

Bitwise points out that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these investment vehicles have absorbed over 100% of the new Bitcoin supply. In other words, ETF funds not only absorbed all newly mined and released coins but also purchased and absorbed some of the existing stock through the secondary market. This data reflects strong institutional demand for Bitcoin, similar to the central bank buying spree faced by gold in 2022.

Expectations of Long-term Supply Exhaustion

Bitwise’s logical chain is quite clear: if ETFs continue to absorb supply at the current rate, it will eventually lead to a gradual depletion of market liquidity available for trading. When selling pressure is fully eliminated and supply falls into a shortage, prices could experience exponential growth. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90K. If this demand momentum persists, it may face a dramatic rally similar to gold.

This is not merely a price forecast but an in-depth analysis based on fundamental supply and demand relationships. By benchmarking against gold, Bitwise reveals a potentially overlooked mechanism—when institutional funds continue to accumulate and liquidity gradually dries up, subsequent price reactions often become unexpectedly intense.