Bond crisis or geopolitical panic? The truth behind the whale dismantling and the short-term decline of Ethereum

On Tuesday, Ethereum declined, and the market initially pointed the finger at the Greenland incident. However, an agent suspected of being the “1011 insider whale,” Garrett Jin, provided a completely different analysis: the real short-term driver of the decline is not geopolitical tensions, but the sharp fluctuations in the global bond market. This perspective warrants in-depth understanding because it reveals the true logical connection between crypto assets and macro financial markets.

Divergence Between Surface Reasons and True Driving Forces

According to Garrett Jin’s analysis, attributing ETH’s decline simply to the Greenland incident contains logical flaws. Although U.S. stocks did decline on Tuesday, the underlying logic behind the phenomenon needs careful unpacking.

The Real Cause of the U.S. Stock Drop

On Tuesday, the decline in U.S. stocks was led not by the overall market but by sectors related to artificial intelligence. This was not driven by macro panic selling but by sector rotation within the tech industry driven by fundamentals—an adjustment at the micro level. In other words, it was a reallocation of funds within industries, not a broad market risk aversion.

The Bond Market Is the Key Variable

The sell-off in the global bond market was the main driver of asset price fluctuations that day. Several independent events overlapped here:

• European and American bonds declined: While somewhat related to the Greenland incident, the core trigger was a report from Deutsche Bank analysts bearish on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, sparking concerns about reallocation into dollar assets.
• Japanese government bonds declined: An entirely independent event, triggered by Japan’s Prime Minister proposing to cancel the food consumption tax, unrelated to geopolitical issues.
• Market stabilization measures: Japanese financial institutions quickly announced market stabilization operations, and the Finance Minister held talks with the U.S. to soothe the markets, leading to a rebound in Japanese bonds.

This detail is crucial—bond market volatility stems from multiple independent micro triggers rather than a single macro shock.

How Policy Responses Can Change the Situation

Trump’s statement may seem most directly related, but timing is critical—the stabilization of bonds and policy responses have already been in effect, and the stock market rebound occurred after these measures.

Why This Analysis Matters for Crypto Assets

Garrett Jin’s core point is: attributing ETH’s short-term decline to the Greenland incident is not well-founded. There are three reasons:

1. The U.S. stock decline was sector rotation, not a systemic risk event.
2. Trump has begun calming the stock market, reducing geopolitical risks.
3. U.S. and Japanese treasury officials have taken action to stabilize the bond market, easing macro liquidity risks.

This suggests that market panic may be short-lived and overinterpreted. Crypto assets are increasingly correlated with traditional financial markets, but understanding this relationship requires penetrating surface phenomena to see the true flow of funds and policy intentions.

Current Market Status and Future Focus

According to the latest data, ETH is currently priced at $2,975.77, down 1.58% in the past 24 hours. More notably, the seven-day decline has reached 10.78%, reflecting recent weekly adjustment pressures. However, from Garrett Jin’s analytical framework, this adjustment is mainly driven by technical fluctuations in the bond market and sector rotation, not by deteriorating fundamentals or long-term trends.

In terms of market capitalization, ETH’s market cap is $35.916 billion, accounting for 11.85%. Against the backdrop of ongoing institutional inflows into crypto assets (which Garrett Jin previously emphasized as a market structural shift), this short-term technical correction may present an entry opportunity for long-term allocators.

Summary

This recent short-term decline in Ethereum offers a valuable case study: in complex macro environments, surface reasons are often misleading. The Greenland incident has become a scapegoat for market sentiment, but the true drivers stem from bond market fluctuations, sector rotation, and the overlay of multiple independent events. Timely policy stabilization measures further dispel market panic.

For crypto investors, the key is to distinguish between short-term technical adjustments and long-term trend changes. In the current environment, ongoing institutional capital inflows and structural shifts are more critical long-term factors than every geopolitical flare-up. Understanding this allows one to stay clear-headed amid market noise.