A fascinating question lies ahead in 2026—how many times will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

Recently, State Street Global Advisors provided their forecast: possibly three rate cuts next year. But looking at the Fed’s own dot plot, officials currently plan to cut only once. This is not a small difference. Behind it lies a fundamentally different understanding of the economic outlook and inflation trajectory. One side wants to give the market more breathing room; the other prefers to wait and see. This confrontation will directly influence market trends in the coming months.

**The core issue isn’t whether they will cut, but how much and how quickly**

You might think, what does this have to do with my holdings of BTC, DOGE? It’s a lot.

One camp of institutions believes the economy needs more support, and there’s still plenty of room for easing. The other camp (Fed officials) insists that we must wait until inflation clearly returns to 2%. That 2% is the bottom line. So their attitude is: let the data speak, I won’t jump to conclusions prematurely.

The gap between these views is precisely the breeding ground for future market volatility. When the monthly core PCE inflation data and employment reports are released, market sentiment will oscillate. Good data boosts optimism; poor data raises expectations of rate cuts. Cryptocurrencies are especially sensitive to these turning points.

**What does this mean for holders?**

A very realistic realization needs to be established: regardless of which forecast proves correct, this macro turning point is a window to rethink asset allocation.

First, the macro environment for crypto is changing. The shift from tight to loose monetary policy is a long-term support factor. But don’t assume this is an immediate positive; short-term trends are still driven by industry-specific stories—ETF fund inflows, new applications, narrative updates—these are the daily drivers. Macro is just the background.

Second, instead of guessing how many times the Fed will cut, focus on the signals of pace. If upcoming economic data continues to weaken, the market will increasingly believe that rate cuts need to come earlier and faster. This rising expectation often boosts risk assets like BTC and DOGE. That’s a logical approach you can act on.

Third, mindset is crucial. Market expectations will swing between optimism and caution. Sometimes, a single employment report can change the entire outlook. In such an environment, sticking rigidly to one side can be dangerous. Being flexible and responsive offers more room for survival than black-and-white judgments.

**What’s your current view?**

Are you leaning toward the institutional view that worries about slowing growth and policy support, or do you agree more with the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation? This judgment will directly guide your position sizing.

Some will choose to front-run, betting that the Fed will ultimately compromise, and economic pressures will force a shift toward easing. This means increasing holdings in assets like BTC and ZEC now. Others will prefer to wait for clearer data before acting.

What does your current portfolio look like? Which expectation does it reflect more? That’s the most practical question.