Year-End Momentum Builds: Silver Surges Past $75, Bitcoin Settles Trading Range Amid $23.7B Options Expiration

The final weeks of December saw global financial markets navigate a peculiar landscape of reduced liquidity yet elevated price volatility across multiple asset classes. As traditional trading venues observed extended holiday closures, alternative markets continued pricing discovery with notable momentum across precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

Precious Metals Ignite: The Safe Haven Rally Deepens

Silver’s breakthrough above the $75 per ounce level marked the fifth consecutive day of gains, with year-to-date performance reaching approximately 161%. This surge reflects broader appetite for tangible assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold similarly demonstrated strength, briefly touching above $4,530 per ounce—a fresh all-time high that market watchers had long anticipated.

The mechanics driving this rally reveal interesting shifts in capital allocation. Market forecasters project gold could eventually reach $4,600 by year-end, with longer-term predictions from noted economist Jim Rickards suggesting prices near $10,000 by 2026. Silver, by comparison, draws speculation of $200 levels. Meanwhile, copper has already breached the $12,000 per ton threshold, with Citibank modeling a potential $15,000 bull-case scenario.

In China, this commodity strength created an unusual market dynamic. The Guotai Junan Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF)—the nation’s sole publicly offered silver futures product—experienced dramatic premium compression. What once traded at 45% above net asset value rapidly contracted to approximately 29.64% following the resolution of arbitrage positioning. Trading volume spike to 260 million yuan as institutional and algorithmic capital unwound overleveraged positions in what’s known as the “off-exchange subscription—T+2 on-exchange sale” strategy.

Currency Markets React: RMB Appreciation Gathers Pace

The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) breached the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time in over a year, signaling meaningful capital repatriation flows. Industrial Securities’ analysis pointed to dual dynamics at work: weakening dollar momentum combined with increased foreign exchange settlement demand from China-based entities. Rather than a purely external currency weakness story, this appreciation appears driven by endogenous factors pulling capital homeward.

Market observers suggest RMB strength may still be in early innings, with potential to further support equity market risk appetite heading into 2026.

Bitcoin Consolidation Phase: Analyzing the $23.7 Billion Options Puzzle

Bitcoin traded predominantly within the $85,000 to $90,000 range during this period, a consolidation pattern directly attributed to annual options settlement mechanics. With notional exposure reaching $23.7 billion to $28.5 billion across major expiration dates, the market essentially awaited clarity on how these positions would resolve.

Analyst views diverged sharply on what comes next. Bullish observers—including Michael van de Poppe—note that substantial commodity market momentum could redirect toward digital assets. With macroeconomic conditions potentially easing, they forecast Bitcoin breaking through $90,000 resistance toward $100,000 territory. On-chain data analyst Murphy identified 670,000 BTC accumulated near $87,000, establishing what could serve as meaningful support should pullbacks occur. Technical analyst Mark shares the bullish outlook, targeting $91,000.

Conversely, more cautious observers led by Lennart Snyder and analysts tracking historical consolidation patterns note that Bitcoin spent only 28 days in the $70,000-$80,000 range, indicating weak support. The $30,000-$50,000 range historically hosted price action for nearly 200 days, suggesting if meaningful corrections occur, lower support zones may require extensive time to establish. BTSE COO Jeff Mei modeled scenarios where Federal Reserve policy divergence matters greatly: a pause in rate-cut cycles could pull Bitcoin toward $70,000, while continued “implicit quantitative easing” might drive prices between $92,000-$98,000 through institutional capital flows.

CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler Jr. flags a technical warning: Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has fallen to 56.5, dangerously close to the four-year moving average of 58.7. A break below 55 could trigger deeper corrections. Historical pattern analyst Ali Charts notes that Bitcoin typically requires 1,064 days to climb from cycle bottoms to tops, but only 364 days to descend from peaks to next bottoms. If those patterns persist, October 2026 could mark the next cycle floor around $37,500—approximately 80% below current levels.

Ethereum Awaits Direction: The $2,700-$3,000 Tug-of-War

Ethereum remains caught between competing forces, oscillating within the $2,700-$3,000 band without establishing clear directional intent. Analyst Ted suggests ETH needs to decisively break either above $3,000 or retrace into the $2,700-$2,800 support zone to generate meaningful volatility.

Large accumulation patterns provide clues. Since November 21, whale-tier investors have systematically purchased 4.8 million ETH around the $2,796 cost basis level—approximately 7% below the $3,000 psychological threshold. Should this level capitulate, on-chain support could collapse toward $2,300. Jeff Mei’s framework suggests Ethereum’s outlook directly ties to Federal Reserve policy: either $2,400 (rate-cut pause scenario) or $3,600 (hidden QE continuation scenario).

CryptoBullet’s technical analysis draws parallels to 2022 market conditions, warning that support breakdown could push prices into the $2,200-$2,400 range before any potential rebound toward the 200-day moving average. Yet despite near-term uncertainty, prominent bulls like Trend Research founder Yi Lihua maintain conviction in the bottoming thesis, committing additional $1 billion to accumulate on any weakness, betting on a major 2026 bull market cycle.

Market Sentiment Metrics: Fear, Liquidations, and Redemption Pressure

The crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 20, indicating “Extreme Fear” conditions as of late December. This psychological capitulation accompanied $181 million in liquidations across a 24-hour period, with Bitcoin absorbing $73.65 million and Ethereum accounting for $24.97 million of forced position closures.

Capital flows reinforced the bearish undertone. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their fifth consecutive day of net outflows totaling $175 million. Ethereum ETFs similarly experienced $52.7 million in redemptions. These persistent redemption flows suggest that despite volatility, institutional conviction remained subdued through the year-end transition.

Altcoins showed selective resilience. While NFT sector holdings declined over 7% and most crypto equities retreated, AI and SocialFi narratives retained relative stability, hinting at rotation rather than capitulation dynamics.

Data Snapshot & Forward Indicators

Current Market Metrics (as of January 21, 2026):

Bitcoin trades at $88.77K (down 2.35% from recent highs), with 24-hour volume at $1.32 billion and market dominance around 56.54%. Ethereum holds $2.93K (declining 4.76%), backed by $746.16 million in daily volume and maintaining 11.28% market share. Solana’s 24-hour volume recorded $107.01 million as traders assessed altcoin positioning.

The most profitable narratives from 2025 centered on RWA (Real World Assets) and Layer 1 protocols, which led performance rankings. AI and Meme categories experienced significant pullbacks, while GameFi and DePIN segments led declines—a useful indicator of where enthusiasm has rotated away.

Noteworthy developments included Uniswap’s protocol fee switch proposal achieving overwhelming approval through UNIFICATION governance, signaling community confidence in platform monetization expansion. Trip.com’s launch of stablecoin payment options (USDT/USDC) suggested enterprise-level adoption momentum persisting despite market consolidation.

The Outlook: When Does the Direction Clarify?

As $23.7 billion in Bitcoin options positions expire, market participants await the resolution that typically precedes directional breakouts. Whether capital flows back into productive digital asset yield or redirects toward traditional safe havens like precious metals remains the pivotal question.

The convergence of Fed policy signals, capital flow trends, and technical support/resistance levels will likely determine 2026’s initial momentum direction. For now, market participants remain caught in the consolidation zone—a period that historically precedes the most significant moves.