Bitcoin's $88,000 support weakens, halving, beware of increased volatility!

On-chain data shows that the risk exposure at key price levels in the Bitcoin options market is undergoing dramatic changes. Cryptocurrency market analysts warn that this could significantly amplify Bitcoin’s price volatility.

On-chain data analyst Murphy’s latest analysis indicates that the support strength for Bitcoin in the $88,000 to $90,000 range has greatly weakened.

This change is mainly due to the adjustment of Gamma risk exposure by market makers in the options market. The long-term Gamma in this range has shifted to short-term Gamma, implying that support may disappear.

1. Key support broken

● On January 18, 2026, on-chain data analyst Murphy released data showing a major change in Bitcoin’s market structure. The dynamics of the options market at the two critical price levels of $88,000 and $90,000 have undergone a fundamental shift.

● Compared to data from January 12, the $88,000 level has shifted from long-term Gamma to short-term Gamma, meaning support at this price has vanished. Although the $90,000 level still maintains long-term Gamma, its Gamma risk exposure has decreased from $1.2 billion to $590 million, nearly halving.

● This change indicates that the support derived from the capital structure in the $88,000 to $90,000 range has been significantly weakened. Conversely, the Gamma risk exposure at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which could amplify Bitcoin’s volatility.

2. Market sentiment turning point

Analyst Murphy points out that Bitcoin investor sentiment is shifting from the “Hesitation Zone” to the “Disappointment Zone.”

● He explains that Bitcoin price cycles typically go through four emotional stages: Optimism, Profit-taking, Hesitation, and Disappointment. Current market indicators show that investor sentiment is transitioning from the third to the fourth stage.

● Changes in the behavior of large holders confirm this emotional shift. From October to December 2025, whale clusters holding 100-1,000 Bitcoin actively increased their holdings, followed by whales holding 1,000-10,000 Bitcoin taking over the accumulation process.

● But now, whales have stopped accumulating, with some even beginning to reduce their holdings, reflecting a lack of investor confidence. Analysts believe that the market needs a prolonged recovery or lower prices to attract demand and establish a new bottom consensus.

3. Chip structure and price dynamics

● Despite changes in the capital structure of the options market, Bitcoin’s chip structure has not changed significantly. According to URPD data, a large amount of chips still accumulates between $87,000 and $92,000, which remains the strongest support zone and is not easily broken.

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● After experiencing a decisive correction and consolidation phase, the market enters 2026. On-chain indicators show reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stability at the lower end of the current range.

● Analysts warn that if extreme conditions cause the $87,000-$92,000 range to be breached, the probability of Bitcoin filling the “gap” below increases significantly. According to the “Double Anchor Structure,” the middle position is around $72,000 to $74,000.

● In the first week of 2026, Bitcoin broke through the long-term compression at around $87,000, rebounding about 8.5% to $94,000. This upward extension was followed by a clear cooling of profit-taking pressure in the market.

4. Institutional market outlook divergence

Faced with complex market changes, different institutions have shown significant divergence in their 2026 Bitcoin price outlooks. The table below summarizes the views of several institutions:

These notable differences in forecasts indicate high uncertainty about Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026. Specifically, options market pricing shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is nearly equal; by the end of 2026, the chances of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 are similarly close.

5. Options expiration and market impact

Options expiration events have become a major factor influencing Bitcoin price volatility. By the first major settlement in 2026, the total value of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring has exceeded $2.2 billion.

● At the maximum expiration date in December 2025, Bitcoin options settlement amount was about $23.6 billion, a new record, with Bitcoin and Ethereum options settlement scale reaching $28 billion on major exchanges.

● As options approach expiration, Gamma acceleration effects intensify, and market maker hedging actions become more aggressive. Market makers and institutional investors continuously adjust Bitcoin positions to maintain Delta neutrality—buying when prices fall and selling when prices rise—to keep the market balanced.

● When a large number of call options are concentrated above the spot price, the maximum pain point usually lies at a high level; if put options are concentrated below the spot price, the maximum pain point shifts downward. For the $2.2 billion expiration in January, the market views $90,000 as the maximum pain point, which has a key influence on Bitcoin price movement within the expiration window.

6. Structural market changes

Bitcoin’s market is undergoing structural shifts, challenging the traditional four-year cycle theory. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin may break the traditional four-year market cycle and experience explosive growth in 2026.

The reasons behind this change are multifaceted:

● Increasing clarity in US regulation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies reduces the risk of sharp price corrections;

● Political and macroeconomic changes, especially rate cuts, may stimulate capital to flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies earlier than expected.

Market maturity is increasing, with a correction of about 30% in 2025, far less than the 75%-90% declines seen historically. The implied volatility in the options market has decreased, indicating an expanding investor base and providing more sustained bullish reasons for this asset.

Meanwhile, the link between cryptocurrencies and politics is strengthening. It is expected that before the mid-term elections in 2026, the two major US political parties will intensify efforts to gain support from the crypto community. The stalled “Market Structure Act” is likely to gain bipartisan support and pass in early 2026.

As profit-taking pressure eases, prices can continue to rise, but this rebound has now entered a different structural supply phase. The Gamma risk exposure at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, and analysts warn this could amplify Bitcoin’s volatility. According to URPD data, the $87,000-$92,000 range remains the strongest support zone, but if extreme conditions cause this range to be breached, the probability of Bitcoin filling the “gap” below increases significantly.

Market analysts look at the data curves on the screen and whisper: “We are standing at a crossroads of market structure change. The old support has disappeared, and a new equilibrium has yet to form.”