The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January is 95%

2026-01-20 00:26:43

Mars Finance reports that on January 20, according to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a total cut of 25 basis points is 20.7%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 78.4%, and the probability of a total cut of 50 basis points is 0.9%.

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