Christmas Crystal Ball 2026: Can Regulatory Victory Make Up for the Bill Deadlock?

2025 will be a pivotal year for the crypto industry, but the real test is just around the corner. As favorable measures from the SEC and CFTC are rolled out one after another, the industry finds itself divided just before the most critical battle—the fate of the Market Structure Act will determine whether 2026 is a victory or a regret for cryptocurrencies.

The “Self-Rescue” of Regulatory Agencies and the Embarrassment of the Bill

Paul Atkins-led SEC is confident in its regulatory authority. According to his statements, the exemptions granted under the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act are already quite broad—these powers have existed since the New Deal era and are sufficient to meet today’s crypto asset regulation needs.

For this reason, some policymakers have begun to question: since regulators are already pushing for rewriting rules, is the Market Structure Bill really so urgent?

This shift in mindset is quietly spreading among crypto lobbying circles in Washington, D.C. Some insiders have confided to the media that, despite publicly expressing optimism, they remain cautious about the prospects of passing the bill through the Senate before the 2026 midterm elections. The issues involved are too complex and sensitive, and substantial gridlock in Congress has become a foregone conclusion.

The Temptation of the “Safe Harbor”: Savior or Anesthetic?

A statement from a crypto policy leader reveals a subtle change in attitude: “As long as we get token safe harbor, there’s no need for any market structure legislation.”

The exemption clause expected to be implemented by the SEC in January is precisely this “safe harbor.” For some projects, this is already enough. Increasingly, stakeholders believe that, given the favorable federal regulatory environment, it might be better to slow down and take the time to craft a more comprehensive market structure bill—even if it means waiting for years.

Some insiders even outright say that colleagues’ obsession with passing the bill in 2026 constitutes a “market structure delusion.” In their view, regulators are gradually securing critical, irreversible victories for the industry, which is more valuable than rushing legislation.

The Tug-of-War Between Two Voices

But not everyone is convinced. Some senior policy leaders still insist that the market structure bill is crucial for the industry’s long-term development—it’s not just a legal issue but also about building public trust and legitimacy.

This leader emphasizes that the public still perceives the crypto industry as a “dark casino,” and the market structure bill is a powerful tool to change this stereotype. While the current administration can mitigate some issues through administrative measures, these are far less effective and lasting than formal legislation.

“Can it be as good as a bill? Absolutely not.” The implication of this policy leader is clear: regulatory measures are just stopgap solutions; a formal bill is the long-term safeguard.

The Choice in 2026

The crypto industry faces a subtle paradox: regulatory favorable measures weaken the urgency for legislation, but it was this very urgency that propelled the industry forward. If the market structure bill ultimately fails to pass in 2026, the industry will lose an opportunity to attract millions of skeptical investors and will be exposed to future political volatility.

The choices made now will profoundly influence the development trajectory of cryptocurrencies in the coming years.