October 19th Market Outlook

Good evening everyone, I am a trader who tends to get wiped out easily. The recent market movements have been relatively in line with expectations. If you had been paying attention half a month ago, you would have known that Xin Ya gave a possible signal at that time. Bitcoin was heading towards 96,800, Ethereum towards 3,400, then both turned downward after a brief rally. The first half was completely in line with expectations. During Bitcoin's high-level consolidation, Bitcoin Cash followed as expected, reaching 33,68 before both dropped sharply. This round of market correction also maximized risk control; even if we missed the signals, we should stay prudent, avoid being caught in the market, and keep losses minimal. Moreover, we have already taken positions on both sides, which is the essence of the crypto circle's sword and shield.

Looking at the recent two days, Bitcoin mainly consolidated with reduced volume around 94,500-95,500. At 6 a.m., two one-hour K-lines broke below the 120 and 144 EMAs on the one-hour chart, with a low of 91,800. The midday consolidation was centered around 92,500.

This sharp decline was fierce, with funds repeatedly stepping on each other. When the price dropped to 94,500, a $10 million long position was liquidated first; breaking below 93,500 triggered a $50 million liquidation; then a spike to 91,800 wiped out $90 million of long positions. Ethereum also experienced heavy selling on both sides: longs were hit with $20 million, then the price fell to 3,300, liquidating $6 million; at 3,280, another $10 million was wiped out; and a spike around 3,180 led to over $70 million in liquidations. From 3,360 to 3,175, a total of over $100 million was liquidated across 180 points. It was extremely brutal.

This morning at 7 a.m., two one-hour K-lines first broke below the 144 EMA at 3,280, then the second spike dropped a hundred points to around 3,180, breaking below the 120 EMA. These key levels were hit during the decline, which complicates the market's future direction. Our most conservative approach is to scale down and trade short-term. After all, there are only three market states: continuation, recovery, and consolidation. The structure of rebounds and trading volume will determine the trend.

Key levels to watch below are the spike at 91,800 and the rebound zone at 92,500. The 90,500 support and the rally zone starting at 91,200 are also important. On the upside, focus on the 1-hour EMAs at 120 and 144, and the 94,500 level. Pay close attention to the 93,500-93,800 zone, which is the first support level during the sell-off and also the initial stop-loss point for our long positions. Variables here will decide the market's future direction. Similarly, for Ethereum, watch the 4-hour EMA at 120 and 3,180 on the downside, and 3,250-3,280 on the upside.

The market is expected to consolidate between spike points and sell-off levels. It is recommended to prioritize short positions initially, as the market has liquidated too many longs, severely damaging confidence for the future. You can short at 94,000 with a stop at 95,200; conservatively, short at 94,800 with a stop at 95,800. For Ethereum, short at 3,280 with a stop at 3,325. Focus on these key zones for positioning: for rebounds, consider entering at the first spike; for the second rebound, consider 3,135 and 91,200. During consolidation, it’s advisable to trade short-term and observe whether the market tends to recover or continue. Use these key levels as references. #btc