Silver fluctuating around $78, whether the support line holds will determine the market trend

Current Situation: Critical Technical Turning Point Amid Uncertainty

Today, during Asian hours, XAG/USD is experiencing a gentle correction near $78. While it has declined about 0.40% on the daily basis, the price still remains above the monthly uptrend line and yesterday’s low of $77.00.

This range may seem simple, but it is very important. Because whether $77 is supported or not can significantly influence the future direction of silver prices. Currently, the technical momentum for a decline is not particularly strong.

$77: The First Stronghold with Buying Interest

The key level for silver is $77.00. This is where the monthly uptrend line intersects with yesterday’s swing low, serving as a boundary where short-term traders decide “buy or sell.”

If the current price stays above this level, it suggests that there is room for buying at lower prices within the correction phase. In other words, a slight decline could be perceived as a buying opportunity, forming a plausible scenario.

Below this, there is the 100-hour moving average(SMA) at $75.65. This is another important technical indicator for short-term traders, acting as a real ‘switch’ that determines the trend’s direction.

Current Momentum Indicators: Chart Takes the Lead in a Neutral State

The current momentum indicators on the chart are in a neutral state, showing no signs of overheating or weakness.

• MACD: In negative territory but converging toward the 0 line(neutral line). This indicates that recent declines are not sharp, and momentum is gradually stabilizing.
• RSI: Holding at 47, maintaining a perfect neutral zone. Neither overbought nor oversold.

In this situation, technical support/resistance levels on the chart(support/resistance lines) play a more important role than momentum indicators. Specifically, whether the two technical defenses—$77 and the 100-hour SMA at $75.65—are broken or not will likely determine the next move.

Downside Scenario: Chain Reaction of Declines if $77 Is Broken

If the $77(monthly uptrend line + yesterday’s swing low) are definitively broken, a technical sell signal could be triggered.

Expected decline path:

1. First target: $75.00(psychological support level)
2. If further declines occur: The mid-$74s are considered significant support levels, and this zone could potentially become the ‘bottom’ in the short term.

Whether the current fluctuations around $78 are just a correction or a sign of a larger decline ultimately depends on how these support levels respond. If support holds, buying at lows may resume; if broken, a chain of sell-offs could follow.