Gold prices, profit realization vs. safe-haven demand tight... $4,400 is the critical threshold

Gold(XAU/USD) has been correcting near the psychological resistance level of 4,500 dollars, which has slowed its upward momentum. After a strong rally over the past two days, profit-taking sell orders have appeared, indicating a short-term correction phase. However, multilayered geopolitical risks—such as the situation in Venezuela, Trump’s mention of Greenland, pressure on Colombia and Mexico, the Russia-Ukraine war, Iran, and Gaza—are supporting safe-haven demand, preventing a sharp decline.

Technical correction vs. fundamental support… ‘Tug of war’ continues

Uptrend remains intact but signals energy depletion

The 4,500-dollar level is not just a resistance but functions as a congested zone with heavy sell orders. A pullback from this level is interpreted not as a trend reversal but as a natural profit-taking in a risk-on environment.

Technical indicators suggest short-term weakness:

• Price remains above the 100-hour moving average (SMA), maintaining an upward structure
• However, MACD is below the signal line, expanding downward
• RSI is at 48.58, remaining neutral, indicating a “lack of bullish tone”
• The histogram shows downward expansion, indicating short-term bearish pressure

The 4,450–4,445 dollar range acts as a resistance zone, and if broken, the 4,400 dollar level is likely to serve as a key support.

Geopolitical risks, “show no signs of abating”

Risk appetite is active… but uncertainties are expanding

Strangely, after the Venezuela issue, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have hit record highs. In the short term, risk asset preference is dominant, which has triggered profit-taking in gold.

At the same time, the risk landscape is becoming more complex:

• The Trump administration has publicly hinted at possible military action against Colombia and Mexico
• The White House is reviewing options including the acquisition of Greenland(including military intervention)
• Lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, instability in Iran, and Gaza conflicts are acting in chain
• These factors form a structure that can sustain safe-haven demand over time

Fed policy path already ‘partially priced in’ by the market

According to CME FedWatch, the market is pricing in a rate cut in March + an additional cut by the end of the year. The dollar’s inability to sustain yesterday’s rebound momentum is favorable for gold.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin(Thomas Barkin) mentioned that short-term rate adjustments should be “data-dependent,” implying policy flexibility. This underscores how important economic indicators will be moving forward.

“Waiting mode” deepening this week… traders cautious

Why adding positions before indicators is difficult

Focus is on Friday’s US non-farm payrolls(NFP) and next Tuesday’s CPI(Consumer Price Index):

• NFP: a decisive factor that will reassess the probability of Fed rate cuts
• CPI: tracking inflation, serving as a basis for assessing Fed’s policy stance

Today(Wednesday), ADP private employment, ISM services PMI, and JOLTS job openings will be released, potentially triggering short-term volatility in gold and the dollar. These events are expected to act more as catalysts igniting the direction rather than signaling a trend change.

In the overseas futures community, traders are shifting from aggressive position-building to a “wait-and-see” mode after indicators are released. Until major economic data, the prevailing sentiment is cautious observation rather than increasing positions.

Market conflict: profit-taking vs. safe-haven demand

Currently, gold is caught in a tug of war between two forces:

Bearish factors: risk appetite dominance, safe-haven outflows due to stock market record highs, short-term momentum weakening

Bullish factors: persistent multilayered geopolitical risks, concretization of Fed rate cut expectations, failure of dollar rebound

The point where this balance may break is likely after this week’s key economic data releases. If data are weaker than expected, safe-haven demand could surge; if stronger, risk appetite could intensify.

Technically, 4,400 dollars is the last line of defense, with RSI returning to 50 and MACD improving signaling a potential bullish tone again.