#Gate Square Creator New Year Incentives｜Bitcoin Multi-Cycle Trend Analysis and Outlook

Bitcoin has shown clear signs of stabilization and rebound at the beginning of 2026. Its trend exhibits a logical pattern across different timeframes, while positive macro and regulatory changes are injecting new momentum.

Short-term Trend (1 day - 1 week): Healthy Consolidation After Breakout

· Current Situation: On January 14, a strong breakout occurred, with a single-day increase of over 5%, pushing the price from $91,000 to above $96,000, hitting a near two-month high. Currently, it is consolidating around the $95,000 level.
· Technical Signals: The 1-hour chart shows a healthy structure of “volume expansion breakout, volume contraction correction.” Key short-term support is at $94,800 (former resistance turned support), with resistance at $96,300 (intraday high). The market is digesting profit-taking and preparing for the next move.
· Weekly Performance: Up 3.4% in total, showing a oscillating upward pattern. The willingness of funds to enter has increased, but it has yet to effectively break through the previous oscillation upper boundary.

Mid-term Trend (1 month): Driven by Macro and Regulatory Factors

· Trajectory: Starting from $87,000 in January, rebounding through a “push higher - pullback - break through again” process. After being supported by the 50-day moving average (around $89,300), it advanced again with positive news.
· Technical Structure: The daily chart remains above the 200-day moving average, indicating a stable long-term trend. However, the price is still constrained by the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, forming a “long strong, mid-shock” pattern. The $92,000-$94,000 zone is a critical support-turned-resistance area.
· On-Chain Positive Signals: Long-term holders’ selling pressure has significantly decreased, with daily realized profits dropping from a peak of $1 billion to $184 million. The derivatives market has completed nearly half of open contract resets, removing “structural suppression” and clearing obstacles for healthy upward movement.

Long-term Trend (1 year): Structural Rebuilding After Deep Correction

· Background: Since the October 2025 peak of $126,210, the maximum correction reached 30%. By early 2026, the market has gradually stabilized, with the year-to-date performance still at -5.54%.
· Core Shift: The market structure is shifting from retail dominance to institutional capital reflow. After the end-of-year capital outflows, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has shown net inflows again ($117 million), indicating institutions are shifting from waiting to marginal buying.
· Long-term Key Support: $80,600 (weekly trendline + psychological level) and $89,200 (50-day moving average) form a solid defense line for the long-term bull market.

Core Drivers: Macro and Regulatory Resonance

1. Macro Outlook: Rate Cut Expectations Boost Risk Assets
The US December core CPI data was moderate, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut in mid-2026. The prospect of loose liquidity provides critical support for high-elasticity assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and the practical use of cryptocurrencies in emerging markets (e.g., Venezuela) continue to strengthen their value as “non-sovereign assets” for hedging and utility.
2. Regulatory Outlook: Certainty as the Biggest Benefit
The US “CLARITY Act” is entering a key review stage, aiming to clarify token classification, define regulatory responsibilities, and provide a friendly framework for DeFi and stablecoins. Regulatory clarity itself is the most important current catalyst, systematically reducing industry uncertainty and attracting long-term capital. Globally, the pattern is “Europe and the US advancing compliance, emerging markets remaining cautious,” making mainstream adoption increasingly clear.

Summary: Bitcoin’s technical outlook shows positive signals across multiple cycles, while macro liquidity expectations and regulatory clarity are forming a strong fundamental drive. The market is in a critical transition from recovery to resumption of upward movement. #GateTradFi使用体验