Preview: Tonight at 21:30, the US will release the December CPI data. The market generally expects that inflationary pressures remain stubborn.

2026-01-13 05:45:09

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On January 13th, tonight at 21:30, the United States will release the December CPI data. The market generally expects that this inflation data will show that price pressures remain stubborn and that the Federal Reserve’s 2% target is still a distance away. According to comprehensive survey data from Bloomberg and FactSet: the overall CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding more volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Although the Nowcast model from the Cleveland Fed predicts a slightly lower increase (core CPI month-on-month growth of 0.22%), mainstream Wall Street views believe that inflation has not significantly cooled down. Data from CME Group shows that the market is betting with a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January.

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