The US unemployment rate hits a four-year high, Bitcoin and Ethereum face volatility pressure - Monthly employment data delay triggers market adjustments

The U.S. Department of Labor released combined employment data for October to November after a 43-day government shutdown, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, reaching a new high since 2021. This long-delayed report immediately impacted the cryptocurrency market upon release, causing fluctuations in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $90.96K, down 0.04% over the past 24 hours. In comparison, Ethereum performed worse, priced at $3.10K, with a daily decline of 0.69%. Although both assets were under pressure at the time of the data release, signs of a quick rebound appeared afterward, indicating the market’s rapid digestion of the negative news.

The delayed release of employment data is noteworthy. The U.S. government shutdown prevented the Labor Department from releasing monthly reports on schedule. November saw 64,000 new jobs added, but October’s data was revised downward to a decrease of 105,000 jobs. The healthcare and construction sectors experienced employment growth, while federal government layoffs continued.

Despite short-term market pressure, traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future performance. According to Myriad’s market forecast data, traders believe there is a 69% probability that Bitcoin will return to $100,000, a level likely to be reached before dropping to $69,000.

More attention should be given to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group senior currency economist Lee Hardman stated that the Fed is expected to implement multiple rate cuts through 2026. Recently, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams commented that supply chain pressures are not an issue, housing price inflation is slowing, and wage growth indicates the economy is still moderating. Williams expects inflation to fall below 2.5% next year and to further approach the Fed’s 2.0% target by 2027.

This policy trajectory suggests the dollar may face depreciation pressure. Historically, a weakening dollar often boosts Bitcoin, as traders see it as an alternative store of value. As market expectations shift toward monetary easing, a weaker dollar tends to improve global liquidity conditions, making dollar-denominated risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) more attractive to international investors.

The current market environment presents multiple factors: short-term employment data underperforming expectations puts pressure on risk assets, but medium-term easing policies are brewing a counteracting mechanism. The key lies in how investors balance these two forces.