Bitcoin in the snail race: When that 200K dream gradually fades away

Bitcoin is currently scratching its head at $90.82K USD, showing a lack of enthusiasm compared to the earlier bullish forecasts by Standard Chartered — when this bank still predicted the cryptocurrency would soar to $200,000 USD by the end of 2025. But then, this financial giant had to cut its ambitions in half, setting a new target of $100,000 USD. It seems that Bitcoin’s snail story didn’t start today.

From Financial Rainstorms to Chilling Cold

Q4 has not been as rosy as expected. Bitcoin’s momentum has weakened significantly, and the misconception that growth would last forever has now vanished. Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, has realized an important point: the financial rainstorms from investment firms (such as Bitcoin-holding funds) have shifted to a quiet state.

The era of big financial vaults hoarding cryptocurrencies like children collecting candies on Halloween has come to an end. They no longer have the desire to add more. The responsibility of keeping the market lively has been transferred to Bitcoin ETFs — the “financial warriors” that investors hope will rescue the situation.

However, the inflow of funds into these ETFs has begun to slow down alarmingly. Compared to the period of November-December 2024, when ETF funds and digital asset holdings purchased around 450,000 BTC per quarter, the current figure is only about 50,000 BTC. That’s not just a decline — it’s a free fall.

Signals from the Federal Reserve

Kendrick believes that the traditional halving cycle is no longer the main driving factor. The crypto winter has officially ended, and markets only estimate about a 6% probability of a further recession early 2026 — a modest number.

But what truly influences Bitcoin are the decisions from the Fed. The Federal Reserve, with its interest rate policies, is shaping investors’ risk perception. If the Fed cuts interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points and especially if Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, monetary easing will accelerate — a move that could trigger increased interest in “hard money” assets like Bitcoin.

The Standoff Between Upcoming Decisions

Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow price range, awaiting the upcoming decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee. Will this snail market story continue, or will there be a turning point? Both traditional traders and crypto supporters are closely watching, as Fed decisions could be the key to changing the entire landscape.

Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain: Bitcoin cannot stay still for too long — the market is always looking for the next story to tell.