Bitcoin 2026: From Chaos to Market Maturity

Current Situation of Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently trading at $90.78K, after a year 2025 that many call “boring stability.” Although it reached a record high of $126.08K in October, the year-end closing price was nearly the same as the opening. This reduced volatility, rather than indicating weakness, shows that Bitcoin is transitioning from a purely speculative asset to a genuine macroeconomic financial tool.

The year 2025 has seen strong capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, although the $141 trillion AUM figure has yet to reach the $250 trillion target. The increasing presence of institutional investors has helped stabilize the market, despite macro factors like interest rates and AI spending still exerting pressure.

Galaxy Digital Analyst Warns of an Upcoming Turbulent Year

Galaxy Digital, through Chief Research Officer Alex Thorn, does not hide concerns about 2026. In the company’s report, they clearly state: “2026 is too chaotic to predict.” Nevertheless, Galaxy maintains a long-term optimistic outlook, aiming for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

This warning is not unfounded. Galaxy’s analysis team notes that Bitcoin has not yet maintained the critical psychological level of $100,000-$105,000. Until BTC can sustain this level consistently, downside risks remain. This weakness creates a state of uncertainty that Galaxy calls “predictive chaos.”

Options Market Reflects Deep Uncertainty

The best way to understand the level of uncertainty is to look at derivatives markets. Options traders are currently pricing nearly equal probabilities for two opposing scenarios: Bitcoin at $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026.

Looking further out to the end of 2026, the forecast range widens significantly—from $50,000 to $250,000. According to Alex Thorn, these wide price ranges are not due to traders’ lack of knowledge but are a true reflection of unpredictable factors: global monetary policy changes, AI spending trends, and U.S. midterm election outcomes.

2025 Forecasts Not Fully Realized

Not all of Galaxy’s 2025 forecasts came true. Bitcoin did not surpass the $150,000 mark as predicted, nor did it test the $185,000 level. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio at year-end was negative, indicating suboptimal risk-adjusted performance, although at the start of the year BTC was one of the best-performing assets.

These discrepancies have made Galaxy more cautious. They no longer provide overly specific price forecasts for 2026, instead focusing on identifying conditions that could trigger a market turning point.

Maturity Might Be Beneath the “Boring” Surface

An interesting aspect of Galaxy’s view on 2025 is that “boring” might not be negative. As Bitcoin becomes more stable, the cost of downside protection via ( put options) is higher than betting on upside via ( call options)—a pattern often seen in mature markets like gold.

This suggests Bitcoin is moving from an early speculative phase to a more institutional phase. Galaxy believes that whether 2026 ends at $70,000 or $150,000, their long-term bullish trend remains strong. Stability, in Bitcoin’s case, is not a sign of weakness but evidence of maturity.

Conclusion: Waiting for Clarity Amid Chaos

2026 will be a major test for Bitcoin. The market will have to face uncontrollable macro factors while traders await clearer signals. Although warning of “chaos,” Galaxy Digital still maintains that Bitcoin’s maturation process is real, and these difficult phases are necessary stepping stones before significant future leaps.