Tesla's 2025 Delivery Volumes Continue to Decline: Is It Time to Sell TSLA Stock? In-Depth Analysis and Market Outlook

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, down 16% year-over-year, failing to meet analyst expectations. This marks the second consecutive year of decline in its annual deliveries, with core growth engines showing signs of fatigue.

Performance Decline: Global and Regional Markets Simultaneously Slowing

Tesla’s performance in 2025 has raised concerns among many investors. The total deliveries for the year were approximately 1.64 million, a decline of about 8% compared to nearly 1.8 million in 2024. Notably, the rate of decline is accelerating: in 2024, the YoY decrease was 1%, while in 2025, it expanded to over 8%. This downward trend is not isolated. At its most important global production and export hub—the Shanghai Gigafactory—the total shipments in 2025 were about 851,732 units, down approximately 7% YoY. Among these, sales in Mainland China were around 625,000 units, a decrease of nearly 5% YoY.

This is the first time since the Shanghai factory’s commissioning in 2020 that its annual sales in China have declined. However, the Shanghai plant still accounts for more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries, making its health critical.

Disruption by Competition: BYD Achieves Historic Surpass

As Tesla’s growth stalls, its main competitor is rapidly surpassing it. In 2025, BYD made history by surpassing Tesla in total pure electric vehicle sales for the first time, reaching the top spot globally. BYD achieved a record 2.26 million pure electric vehicle sales in 2025, a 28% increase YoY. The lead over Tesla exceeds 620,000 units, a significant margin.

BYD’s success partly stems from its flexible “Pure Electric + Plug-in Hybrid” dual-drive product strategy, effectively covering a broader market demand. In contrast, Tesla focuses solely on pure electric vehicles, facing more concentrated and direct challenges in the current market environment.

Market Reaction: Divergence and Resilience in Stock Price and Technicals

Despite delivery figures falling short of expectations, Tesla’s stock price demonstrated resilience on the first trading day of 2026. As of January 12, 2026, TSLA closed at $445.03. From a technical analysis perspective, after experiencing volatility, the stock successfully held key support in the $408–$430 range and remained above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating that the medium-term upward trend remains intact.

Currently, the stock faces technical resistance around $476–$482. If it can break through effectively, it may attempt to test higher resistance levels at $502 and $531. This reflects that market valuation of Tesla is not solely dependent on short-term delivery numbers.

Tesla’s stock price has historically been highly sensitive to future profitability quality, technological narratives, and valuation multiples, far more than to quarterly operational data.

Future Narrative: Can Autonomous Driving and Energy Business Support Tomorrow?

Facing challenges in its automotive business, Tesla is betting its future growth on two new engines: Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi services, along with rapidly expanding energy storage business. Tesla officially launched the Robotaxi service in June 2025, which is now operational in Austin and San Francisco. Its FSD system has accumulated over 7 billion miles of real-world driving, providing massive data for continuous algorithm iteration.

Meanwhile, energy business has become the brightest growth point in its financial reports. In Q4 2025, Tesla deployed a record 14.2 GWh of energy storage products; for the full year, deployment reached 46.7 GWh, a substantial 48.7% YoY increase. The profit margin of this segment is also significantly higher than that of automotive, making it a new profit pillar.

Related Perspective: Traditional Market Risk Appetite and Hidden Linkage with Crypto Assets

As a representative of tech growth stocks, Tesla’s stock volatility is closely linked to global market risk sentiment. Interestingly, this sentiment shift is creating a subtle linkage between traditional stock markets and crypto markets.

Recent on-chain analysis indicates that the Nasdaq 100 index has lagged, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index has continued to strengthen, possibly signaling that market risk appetite is shifting from top-tier giants to a broader range of growth assets.

In this environment, leading crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-risk-high-growth narrative assets of the digital age, may share similar capital inflow logic with stocks like Tesla. This macro sentiment transmission offers a unique perspective and potential hedging or linkage strategies for cross-market investors.

Investment Reflection: The Crossroads of Overvaluation

Tesla’s current valuation level has long departed from traditional automakers. Its high price-to-sales ratio is entirely based on the market’s long-term narrative of its “transition from hardware company to AI and software company.” Wall Street’s consensus on Tesla’s 2025 revenue and profit outlook is not optimistic, but the market seems to be focusing on a recovery in 2026 and beyond. For investors, the key question is: Is it still worth paying a premium for distant, unrealized future potential?

In this complex market environment, for investors who focus on both traditional equities and digital assets, having a platform like Gate that connects both worlds is highly valuable.

Gate offers not only a wide range of spot trading pairs but also innovative products like the “Life K-line” perpetual contracts (USDT settled), providing mature traders with flexible risk management and market expression tools. Whether holding a view on Tesla’s future stock trend or assessing macro risk sentiment linked to it, there are corresponding financial expressions available.

Core Data Comparison: Tesla vs. BYD 2025

The decline in deliveries is a warning signal that points to fierce competition and potential demand bottlenecks. However, Tesla’s story has never been solely about vehicle sales. On Gate’s market page, TSLA’s stock chart is displayed alongside Bitcoin’s candlestick chart, serving as a metaphor—both represent bets on a disruptive future. The energy business’s 26% profit margin shines in earnings reports, and the Robotaxi fleet is quietly expanding in pilot cities. The ultimate market judgment will depend on how long it takes for these future stars to illuminate a path to real profitability—and how much investors are willing to pay upfront for this voyage.