BTC's recent market movement is quite interesting. After 9 weeks of closing below 100,000, the macro structure remains weak— as long as this big framework doesn't reverse, every rebound is a good opportunity for retail investors caught in the trap to run away. Looking at the CVD flow data makes it clear: whenever BTC touches a rally, spot trading flows out continuously, and institutions are dumping.

In the short term, a second test of 102K is still possible, but the 3D RSI at the 50 level has already become a bottleneck, and 95K has long been a resistance zone. The weekly RSI falling below 44 is a bit painful—this was the major support throughout the cycle, now broken. To speculate upward, it’s necessary to reclaim this level. Currently, BTC is still hovering below this line, which is a typical bearish retest zone.

Looking at the long-term buy signals— they haven't triggered yet. The 1W and 2W RSI are far from oversold, and the MVRV Z-Score remains at 1.19, well away from the negative zone. So, we have to wait for this point.