Bitcoin faces multiple shocks: Japan's policy shift may trigger a drop to $70,000 adjustment

Bitcoin has recently been under dual pressure from macroeconomic and technical factors. Several market analysts point out that with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expected to initiate policy tightening on December 19, global liquidity may further contract, posing a significant threat to Bitcoin’s price.

The Chain Reaction of Japan’s Rate Hike: From Exchange Rates to Asset Prices

Why does Japan’s interest rate hike decision impact the global crypto market? The core lies in the risk unwinding mechanism of “yen arbitrage trading.”

When the BoJ raises interest rates, the yen faces increased appreciation pressure, making leveraged investments financed in yen more expensive. Many traders are forced to close these risk positions, thereby draining liquidity from the global financial markets. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin is the first to be affected in an environment of liquidity exhaustion.

According to data backtracked by analyst AndrewBTC, this pattern has been repeatedly validated over the past year. During the BoJ’s rate hike in March 2024, BTC fell about 23%; in July, during policy adjustments, the decline reached 26%; by January 2025, the drop expanded to 31%. AndrewBTC warned on social media that a similar downward cycle could repeat.

The latest economist survey by Reuters shows that the market widely expects the December policy meeting to raise rates again, further reinforcing the aforementioned risk perception.

Technical Signals Also Send Warnings

In addition to macro factors, Bitcoin’s candlestick patterns also show clear risk signs.

The BTC daily chart is currently in a classic bearish flag consolidation zone. This pattern formed after Bitcoin sharply retreated from the high of $105,000–$110,000 in November, entering a relatively narrow upward channel, creating a technical structure that suggests trend continuation.

Once the price confirms a breakdown below the lower trendline of the flag, technical measurement indicators point to an adjustment target zone of $70,000–$72,500. Several senior technical analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have repeatedly given the same downward target over the past month, forming a consensus.

Macro and Technical “Dual Alerts”

Analyst EX combined the deteriorating macro liquidity and technical pattern risks and bluntly stated that Bitcoin could “drop to $70,000.”

It is worth noting that the current real-time BTC price fluctuates around $90.69K, still some distance from the market warning target zone of $70,000. However, once the Japanese rate hike is implemented and global risk sentiment further shifts, such adjustment risks could quickly turn from technical expectations into market reality.

For Bitcoin investors, this is not only a price warning but also a risk management reminder. In an environment where macro policies are uncertain and liquidity may tighten, cautious leverage management becomes especially important. Investors should also be alert to derivative risks such as Ethereum scams that may emerge during turbulent times, maintaining vigilance throughout.