Ethereum and institutional returns: Will 2026 be a breakthrough year for ETH?

Ethereum is under crossfire between market expectations and reality. On one hand, institutional adoption and blockchain utilization are gaining momentum. On the other hand, trading around $3,120 shows weakness – the annual result remains in the negative (-4.97%). This contradiction raises the question: what needs to change for ETH to once again offer returns worthy of its position in the ecosystem?

Institutions and Tokenization: The Chance for a TVL Jump

According to Joseph Chaloma from Sharplink Gaming, the answer lies in two development directions – stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization (RWA).

Stablecoins as a Network Growth Engine

The stablecoin market is rapidly expanding. Projections indicate growth from about $308 billion currently to $500 billion by the end of next year. Most stablecoin activity is concentrated on Ethereum – this directly translates into increased network load and strengthened on-chain locked value. This means that every new billion dollars in stablecoins potentially increases Ethereum’s utility.

RWA: Moving from Experiments to Scaling

The second component is tokenized real-world assets. Chaloma forecasts that RWA could reach $300 billion by 2026 – not as a speculative venture, but as a real migration of institutional financial instruments onto the blockchain.

Large institutions like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Franklin Templeton are already testing offering funds directly on the network. These are no longer pilot projects – they are preparations for scaling. And all of them choose Ethereum as the settlement layer. This is not a coincidence but a confirmation that Ethereum possesses the necessary technical properties.

Economic Security: Foundations for Returns

Why have institutions trusted Ethereum? The answer lies in the security built over years.

Since early 2020, Ethereum has undergone a transformation. Today, it has over 32 million ETH staked, securing over $105 billion in economic value. The number of validators has reached one million active participants. These are not small numbers – a fundamental change in security architecture.

Bitcoin relies on hash power – computational strength. Ethereum builds “economic security” – a system where each validator has a financial interest in the honesty of the network. For institutions, this difference is crucial. They want to know that their assets are secured not by theoretical numbers but by real economic incentives.

Returns on the Horizon: Forecasts vs. Reality

Experts are divided, but most point to growth potential in price.

Tom Lee from Fundstrat argues that Wall Street will shift interest toward tokenization of securities and financial instruments. He believes Ethereum’s architecture – neutral, reliable, and supported by a developer ecosystem – naturally positions it for this role. His forecast: $7,000–$9,000 by early 2026. In an accelerated adoption scenario – even $20,000.

Christopher Perkins, analyzing institutional preferences, states they will favor blockchains offering reliability, security, and risk management. Ethereum remains number one on this list.

Nevertheless, Benjamin Cowen warns against optimism. Broader market conditions, especially Bitcoin cycles, may prevent a rapid price jump for ETH.

What Awaits Us in 2026?

The paradox of Ethereum is that fundamentals are growing, but the price stagnates. TVL could increase tenfold. Institutions may enter en masse. Economic security could solidify. But investor returns remain an open question – they depend on broader market conditions and sentiment, which are hard to forecast.

One thing is certain: the infrastructure for returns is slowly forming. The only question is when the market will notice.