XRP Price Dilemma: Why the $64 Million ETF Inflow Hasn't Breakthrough the $2 Barrier

The crypto market data for the last week of 2025 revealed an interesting paradox. XRP spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $64 million, leading all major crypto asset ETFs during the same period. However, this substantial capital did not effectively push up the price. In contrast, Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $102 million, while Solana ETF attracted $13.14 million in inflows, with all listed SOL funds showing growth, creating a stark contrast.

What’s more intriguing is that XRP’s current price still hovers below $2, with the latest quote at $2.05. This has raised market concerns: if institutional funds continue to flow in, why can’t the price stabilize?

ETF Purchase Mechanism: The Hidden Disconnection Between Capital Inflows and Market Prices

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently explained the underlying logic behind this phenomenon. When XRP ETFs receive capital, fund managers are not directly buying tokens on public exchanges. Instead, they conduct over-the-counter (OTC) trades with large institutional market makers like Jane Street, Susquehanna, Goldman Sachs, and others.

Competition among market makers is fierce, aiming to offer the best prices for large orders. After the trades are executed, these intermediaries seek XRP in the broader market to deliver to the ETF’s custodian. This means that although capital does influence the spot market, its effect is indirect and gradual, not through visible exchange order books immediately lifting the price. Even during periods of heavy capital inflows, this mechanism suppresses short-term price spikes.

Technical Warning Signs

Despite strong ETF demand, technical analysts have issued warnings. XRP faces a critical monthly test, potentially marking its first monthly close below an important support level this year. Analysts point out that the token must stay above $2.08 before the month ends to maintain a bullish outlook.

A senior analyst emphasized that doubts should be viewed with a longer time horizon. If the monthly close falls below the support level, it will be the first such occurrence this year, requiring bullish investors to reassess their strategies. He added that market trends are always the ultimate judge of true strength, and data and flows will ultimately be validated by price action.

The current situation facing XRP reflects the complexity of the crypto market: the entry of institutional capital and the actual price performance in retail markets are not simply positively correlated.