Meme Coin Indicator SPX6900: Technical Reversal Signals and Market Ecosystem Dilemma

Is the Meme coin sector already at the end of its strength? The performance of SPX6900 over the past 24 hours provides an answer — although it declined by over 3%, this drop was better than the market panic at the beginning of the year. In stark contrast, Pumpfun (PUMP) rose 6.13%, and Useless Coin (USELESS) increased by 8.33%. The divergence in the trends of these three tokens indicates that the Meme coin track is undergoing a structural adjustment.

SPX6900 Bottoming Signal: Signs of Divergence in Technicals

SPX6900 is currently hovering around $0.60, with a complex technical chart. The token is testing the previous support level of $0.44 (corresponding to the October 10 low), which is a key psychological level for market participants.

From the momentum indicators, the MACD signal line has started to turn upward, indicating a weakening of selling pressure. More notably, open interest (OI) has expanded from $8 million to $11.47 million. This phenomenon of falling prices accompanied by increasing positions is known in technical analysis as “bullish divergence” — often a precursor to a reversal.

If SPX6900 can hold above $0.44, the next target should be set at $0.75. This price level was previously a resistance point and has repeatedly triggered selling pressure. A breakout would require volume confirmation.

On-Chain Footprint: Diverging Trader Attitudes

According to the latest on-chain indicators, the situation is more complex than price movements suggest. CVD data (Cumulative Volume Delta) shows that spot and futures traders have maintained a net buying trend since early December. This indicates that large investors and institutions are still actively accumulating.

However, retail investors tell a different story. CryptoQuant research indicates that retail trading activity remains neutral and continues the past habit of chasing high prices. This behavioral difference essentially reflects a change in the market participant structure. Industry insiders point out that this filtering effect is precisely a mechanism that raises trading thresholds and eliminates weaker hands.

Ecosystem Dilemma: Overall Decline in Meme Coin Sentiment

It is important to recognize that the single-token predicament of SPX6900 reflects a broader decline in the Meme coin sector. According to industry data:

• The total market capitalization shrank sharply from $15 billion at the end of Q3 to $43 billion, a 70% decrease
• Market attention to the sector has fallen by 81.6% this year
• Even the leading token Dogecoin (DOGE) now holds only a 0.71% market share, with a continuous shrinking trend

This indicates that the competition for liquidity is intensifying — emerging Meme coins are constantly appearing, but overall capital scales are shrinking.

Rebound Possibility Assessment

SPX6900 faces a contradiction of “strong single coin, weak ecosystem.” Although the technicals show signs of stabilization, negative pressures at the sector level may limit the extent of its rebound. In the short term, reclaiming $0.75 could be considered a technical confirmation; however, achieving a larger rally requires the entire Meme coin ecosystem to regain market enthusiasm.

The key indicators to watch now are: whether OI can continue to expand and whether CVD can shift from weak positive to strong positive. These two signals will determine whether SPX6900 is bottoming out for a rebound or continuing to seek a bottom.